The top election forecaster finds more chambers are competitive than in recent elections, and a “blue wave” could shape state legislative races
WASHINGTON — Sabato’s Crystal Ball is out with its first assessment of the landscape for state legislative races in 2026, and it’s clear state Democrats have momentum heading into November. Fifteen chambers are rated as competitive – more than in nearly a decade – and Republicans are “playing defense to a disproportionate degree.” A negative “reaction to President Trump and his policies” will impact state legislative races, and Democrats are poised to “ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities” across the country.
The top takeaway: Many of the top battlegrounds in November are in state legislatures.
To capitalize on the historic opportunity to build state legislative power this year, the DLCC announced the largest target map and budget to date, including 42 chambers and 27 states.
More from Sabato’s Crystal Ball below:
- In a 2026 midterm environment that is shaping up to have a blue tint, some of the most important battlegrounds in November are the state legislatures.
- Befitting the dynamics of the first midterm election of President Donald Trump’s second term, the Republicans are currently playing defense to a disproportionate degree. The GOP currently holds 8 of the chambers we deem competitive, while the Democrats hold 4.
- In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable cycle, driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies.
- In a number of legislative chambers controlled by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities.
- In our first handicapping of state legislature control of the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.
- Among the chambers we rate as competitive, 9 of them are rated Toss-up. This category includes 6 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Wisconsin House) and 2 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan Senate and the Minnesota Senate), plus the tied Minnesota House.
- This year, there are more Republican-held chambers that aren’t in line to flip control outright, but which Democrats, aided by the blue environment, might be able to end Republican supermajorities. In many cases, Democrats would only need to net seats in the low-to-mid single digits.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) is the official Democratic Party committee dedicated to winning America’s state legislatures and building state infrastructure. Over the last decade, we have fought cycle-over-cycle to gain a dozen new legislative chamber majorities and we are leading the effort to bring national attention and investment to our ballot level. State legislatures are the building blocks of our democracy and have the closest connections to Americans’ day-to-day lives. From protecting fundamental freedoms and voting rights to growing the middle class, the DLCC and state legislators are moving the Democratic agenda forward and shaping the future of this country.
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