Latest Gubernatorial Rating Shifts Further Raise Stakes for Legislative Races This Year

The DLCC is preparing to build and strengthen Democratic legislative power in these key states with a huge impact on governors’ power

WASHINGTON—The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings in four gubernatorial races this morning towards Democratic candidates in Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, and Ohio.

All four of these states are on the DLCC’s historic Target Map, and this shift raises the stakes for delivering Democratic wins at the state legislative level to empower potential incoming Democratic governors.

Here is a state-by-state breakdown of the stakes:

Arizona – Cook Political’s Rating Update: Gov. race toss-up → Leaning Democratic

Democrats need to pick up four seats in the House and three seats in the Senate to flip both chambers from red to blue to deliver a trifecta. If Gov. Hobbs wins reelection, state legislative majorities would allow Democratic priorities to move forward under the first Democratic trifecta in 60 years.

• The DLCC has already announced 15 Target Race candidates in Arizona to help secure this trifecta.

Ohio – Cook Political’s Rating Update: Gov. race leaning Republican → Toss-up

Democrats need to flip six seats in the House to break the GOP supermajority and gain the ability to uphold a Democratic governor’s veto of extreme legislation. The Republican supermajority has wielded their power for over a decade to pass extreme legislation, restrict voting rights, and has repeatedly worked to overturn the will of the people who voted to enshrine abortion rights in their constitution.

• The DLCC has already announced 11 Target Race candidates in Ohio to break this supermajority.

Maine – Cook Political’s Rating Update: Gov. race likely Democratic → Solid Democratic

Democrats need to maintain and expand their one-seat majority in the House and three-seat majority in the Senate to protect the Democratic trifecta and continue to pass legislation to lower costs for working Mainers, such as affordable and accessible childcare and free community college for recent high school grads.

• The DLCC has already announced 7 Target Race candidates in Maine to protect and expand the legislative majority.

New Mexico – Cook Political’s Rating Update: Gov. race likely Democratic → Solid Democratic

Democrats need to flip three House seats to deliver a supermajority and expand the power of the trifecta that has allowed them to safeguard critical programs like Medicaid from attacks from the Trump administration and help working families keep more of their hard-earned money by becoming the first state to pass universal child care.

Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams issued the following statement:

“Momentum is building for Democratic candidates across the country up and down the ticket, and state legislative races just got even more important as the gubernatorial races in Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, and Ohio shift in Democrats’ favor. The ability for those potential Democratic governors to deliver will hinge on the progress we make in state legislatures.  Expanding majorities in Maine and New Mexico, flipping the Arizona legislature from red to blue, and breaking the GOP supermajority in the Ohio House are all critical pillars of the DLCC’s historic 2026 strategy, which will open the door for Democrats to advance their priorities and fight toxic GOP extremism. The DLCC is working harder than ever from now until November to seize this historic opportunity to make lasting progress for the people in these states and across the country.”

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) leads the national strategy to secure Democratic power in our state legislatures. We are the campaign arm for more than 3,000 state legislators and thousands of candidates across all 50 states who are advancing Democratic values and standing up to the dangerous MAGA agenda every single day. Over the last decade, our work has flipped 10 new chamber majorities. Those new majorities have ensured Democrats in state legislatures are positioned to protect our democracy and fundamental rights, while addressing the high cost of living and advancing opportunities. The DLCC’s national strategy and target map continue to pinpoint the most efficient paths to Democratic power across all 50 states. 

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