The DLCC recently released a 2010 campaign strategy memo discussing what’s at stake for redistricting in this year’s elections, as well as what the DLCC is doing to put Democrats in the best possible position to influence the redistricting process:

In a memo sent to Democratic leaders and activists on Monday, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's Executive Director Michael Sargeant highlighted 15 key battlegrounds for the 2010 election and called for the establishment of a $20 million "Redistricting Fund" to help the party win those races.

"The DLCC is determined to run the largest democratic redistricting mobilization in history this year to ensure that our state legislative candidates have the resources needed to win against well-¬heeled Republican special interests," according to the memo, which was passed by a Democratic source to the Huffington Post. "To make this possible, we have established the DLCC's Redistricting Fund to deploy $20 million to races that will have the greatest impact on reapportionment."

Republicans insist the wind will be at their backs in 2010, but as DLCC Executive Director Michael Sargeant pointed out in an interview with the Associated Press, that hasn’t stopped state-level Democrats from making gains in the past:

Democrats are more optimistic about their chances in the states, noting they gained legislative seats this year in special elections in GOP-leaning areas of Virginia and Kentucky, even as approval ratings for President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress sagged.

"We've been successful at the state legislative level whether it's a good year or a bad year for Democrats nationally," said Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Talk of a Republican surge also ignores the fact that GOP state legislative recruiting this year has been an absolute disaster in states like West Virginia and Arkansas, both of which were supposed to be at the epicenter of the Republican “wave.”

West Virginia isn’t the only state where Republicans have legislative recruiting troubles. Yesterday afternoon was the filing deadline in Arkansas, and the Republicans’ field in that state is even more of a disaster than in West Virginia.

According to the Secretary of State’s list of officially filed candidates, Arkansas Republicans largely abandoned the field in three key races:

• State House: Republicans failed to field a single candidate in 44 out of 100 State House seats. That means Democrats only have to win seven of the remaining 56 seats to guarantee a majority.
  
  

• State Senate: Arkansas Republicans also left uncontested 8 of the 17 State Senate seats up for grabs in 2010. Between these and the Republican-held seats they have to defend, it is now mathematically impossible for Republicans to win control of the chamber.
  
  

• Attorney General: One of three statewide offices Republicans failed to contest, the Attorney General race is significant because the winner sits on the three-member Board of Apportionment, which will redistrict the state legislature in 2011. Democrats are now guaranteed at least one of the three seats.

For Republicans, it's embarrassing enough that this happened in a state John McCain carried by 20 percent. But more surprising still, the GOP couldn’t even find people willing to run in seats that should be at the top of their target list.

To give just one example, we had been watching House District 21, where the incumbent Democrat announced his resignation effective June 6th. McCain earned nearly 65 percent of the two-party vote in that district, but not a single Republican candidate stepped up to run for the open seat.

You can’t beat somebody with nobody. And thanks to Republican candidate recruitment failures in West Virginia, Democrats in both legislative chambers are in excellent shape heading into the 2010 elections:

In a news release from Democrats, they noted the GOP failed to find any candidates for 31 of the state's 117 legislative races. (…)

"Nationally, there has been a great deal of chatter about a Republican tidal wave coming in 2010, but clearly that is not the case in West Virginia," Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey said.

"When you do not have quality candidates stepping forward to challenge incumbents, that speaks volumes."

According to the candidate list on file with the Secretary of State’s office, 4 of those 31 uncontested Democratic seats are in the State Senate, where only half the chamber is up for re-election in 2010. But Republicans are also defending 4 seats of their own. That means even if the Republicans somehow managed to win every single race in which they have a candidate, they would still fail to take control of the chamber.

The situation is almost as bad in the House of Delegates, where 27 Democratic-held districts lack Republican candidates. It only takes 51 seats to hold an outright majority, meaning Democrats are already halfway there.

All told, across the state, Democrats filed candidates in all but eleven legislative races.

In North Carolina, both political parties are paying particularly close attention to this year's state legislative elections:

That is because the legislature, as required by the U.S. Constitution, will draw new district maps for the legislature and for Congress in 2011 based on the census that will be conducted this year. Whether those maps are drawn by Democrats or Republicans - or jointly by both parties - could go a long way in deciding who holds power in Raleigh and who goes to Washington.

Democrats currently control both houses of the legislature, and leaders like Speaker Joe Hackney aren't downplaying the stakes for 2010:

"The conventional wisdom is that the election preceding redistricting is the most important one of the decade. I would not quarrel with that. We have seen redistricting make a big difference in legislative bodies."

For their part, Republicans are telling reporters that they are optimistic about their chances in this year's legislative races. But Democrats aren't taking the threat lightly. They're already hard at work recruiting strong candidates and laying the groundwork for victories this fall.

Term limits promise to shake up legislative politics – and create unique opportunities for Democrats – in a number of states where term-limited legislators are disproportionately Republican. One such state is Montana, where The Missoulian recently previewed the upcoming legislative contests:

State Senate: 25 of its 50 seats are up for election this year, including 15 that are open because term limits bar the incumbent from running. Sixteen of the contested seats are held by Republicans; nine by Democrats. Republicans currently hold a 27-23 majority in the Senate.

State House: All 100 House seats are up for grabs this year, including 14 that are vacant because of term limits. The current House is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans.

In the Montana Senate, Republicans have ten open seats to defend because of term limits, while the Democrats only have five. There are also slightly fewer term-limited Democrats in the State House than Republicans, and with both chambers so closely divided, any small advantage could tip control to one side or another.

Colin Delany -- the founder of epolitics.com and a former legislative staffer in Texas -- has written a new guide on how to use the Internet to campaign for office.

This free manual -- available for download here -- puts particular emphasis on lessons that down ballot candidates can gain from exploring the examples of the Obama campaign and other efforts in 2008.

Delany has compiled information on how to choose the tools to power an online effort, how to go about building a following, and how to tap online supporters to become volunteers and donors.

While 2010 will be a very different election from 2008, there are still plenty of important that the winning strategies from previous races can be put to use by candidates looking to come out on top next year. For any campaign looking for a set of good ideas, Delany's new guide is a good place to start.

With the books closed on the 2009 Election (a few important specials notwithstanding), focus is now beginning to shift to the stakes for 2010, which puts redistricting squarely in the spotlight. We're now seeing the first of what will likely be many stories from the national media about next year's election.

Bob Benenson, writing for CQ, offers a particularly good breakdown of what to expect in 2010:

What’s not at all clear now is whether one party will dominate redistricting and have the latitude to go for broke, or whether each party will control maps with comparable numbers of seats, giving the process more of a play-it-safe mood. That’s because, 48 weeks from Election Day 2010, the political climates in the states are far from fully formed, and so it’s too soon to predict the overall winner of the campaigns for the governors’ mansions and statehouse gavels.

To maximize their chances, each party has a related organization — the Republican State Leadership Committee and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee — to provide advice and money to state legislative candidates. The Democratic group plans to spend $20 million or more, and the GOP group plans on spending as much as $22 million on such 2010 races.

At the DLCC, we are ready. We've been preparing for this for some time. But that doesn't mean we won't need plenty of help from supporters like you.

Check out RedistrictingFacts.com to learn more about the process and continue coming to DLCC.org for breaking news and important updates.

Texas, where Democrats are just two seats away from recapturing the State House, is one of the biggest redistricting prizes of 2010. Consistent Democratic gains over the last few cycles (despite a brutally gerrymandered State House map) have fueled speculation that those last two seats will be the most difficult to capture, but a new study covered by Burnt Orange Report suggests Texas Democrats will continue to enjoy a target-rich environment in 2010:

The Quorum Report has some interesting numbers from Dana Chiodo. Typically a swing district nationally is a district that is between 47 to 53% Democrat. In Texas a swing District can be as high as 60% Republican according to Chiodo.

That, according to Quorum Report puts Linda Harper Brown, Dan Branch, Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler directly at risk. It also gives a boost/advantage to incumbents to Kristi Thibaut and Diana Maldonado who both represent suburban areas.

With the House currently at 74 Democrats to 76 Republicans and and 60% Republican district is at risk for Texas Republicans, the House majority appears to be within our grasps. [sic]

Capturing the Texas House would break the Republican hold on the congressional redistricting process, and it would guarantee the Democrats at least one seat on the state’s Legislative Redistricting Board, which draws State House and Senate districts if the legislature and governor cannot agree on a redistricting plan.

Republicans currently control majorities in both houses of the Missouri legislature, but both parties are already looking ahead to 2010 as a crucial election.

And for good reason:

The party that holds the majority in 2010 will control any redistricting. And roughly 40 Republicans, who hold majorities in both the Senate and the House, are term-limited, which leaves wide-open races.

Across the state, candidates have already begun to announce their intentions to run.

Today's political landscape is radically different from what it was in 2000. That set of elections and redistricting occurred at a time before rise of political blogging or YouTube or Twitter.

That's a point that Charles Mahtesian made in POLITICO last week:

It’s easy to forget that, while the practice of drawing political districts with the intent of maximizing power dates back at least two centuries, it wasn’t until fairly recently in our history that the dark arts of redistricting were perfected by the creation of software and databases that facilitated pinpoint line-drawing.

Now, I think, we’re about to see the next evolutionary step in redistricting — a round where the blogosphere plays a significant role in determining the final outcome.

Mahtesian was in the room for the redistricting panel at Netroots Nation. He saw an engaged audience, asking thoughtful questions.

Democrats in this country are already aware that this process is unfolding and aren't willing to let Republicans control redistricting yet again.

We hope to have video from the panel soon.