Democrats in New York only need to win two more seats to gain control of the state senate for the first time in almost 70 years. This week, Newsday takes a look at the election:

Voter turnout is expected to be high and to favor Democrats because of their party's historic presidential candidate Barack Obama, together with angst about the economy and anger at President George W. Bush over the war in Iraq.

However, Republican senators still enjoy a fundraising advantage and GOP presidential candidate John McCain is predicted to do well in rural areas such as the north country, where his party hopes to win back a seat lost in February to Darrel Aubertine of Watertown.

Things are so bad that the new GOP leader, Sen. Dean Skelos, has taken to arguing voters will side with his party to keep balance in government:

"If the Senate were to flip, you would have every branch of government controlled by the Democrats, which I think is dangerous in terms of checks and balances. I believe people want balance and we, the Republican majority in the Senate, provide that."

In my experience, that's a losing argument. Polling seems to back me up:

Fifty-two percent of the voters surveyed by Quinnipiac University from July 31 to Aug. 4 backed a Democratic takeover of the Senate. Only 32 percent supported the status quo.

Perhaps it's worth noting at this point that Skelos got the job because his predecessor -- Sen. Joseph Bruno -- resigned mid-session. I'm not alone in believing that Bruno retired because he had no interest serving in the minority.

Democrats in New Hampshire hold a 14-10 majority in the Senate and a 235-158 majority in the House, and they feel good about their chances in the fall.

That's at least in part because they've also made a steady effort to improve the party's position in the state since 2002. Over the last six years, party leaders estimate that Democrats have gained around 84,000 new voters. They've quadrupled the state party budget, opened 28 new local offices, and now employ more than 50 full-time staffers overall.

Another big part of the reason for Democratic confidence in this election is that legislators have done a remarkable job passing effective legislation and governing. Senate President Sylvia Larsen outlines those accomplishments here.

It's not a good time to be a Republican in Nevada.

A year ago, the state was tied in terms of voter registration. Now, the GOP is staring at a 60,000 person deficit.

Democrats in the state have outraised them for the cycle, and the GOP governor has been plagued with scandal.

On top of all that, conservative activists are mounting primary challenges against long-time Republican establishment figures like Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio:

Raggio, 81, won a six-point victory on Tuesday after being forced to campaign actively for the first time since his initial race in 1972. His opponent is a hero of Nevada's hard-core fiscal and social conservatives angered by Raggio's compromises on such things as a large 2003 tax increase.

"Obviously there has been creeping disunity within the party," Raggio said. "I have not had a very serious, tough election up until this primary."

That's heartening news for us. We're looking at the Nevada Senate as one of our top targets for the cycle.

The good publicity for Sean Tevis keeps on rolling. This time he's getting the NPR treatment.

You can read about the piece here but I'd recommend listening to the story (link at the top of the page).

Also -- pay attention to the new numbers that Tevis describes. When he turned in his numbers at the end of last month, he reported raising, "$96,000 from nearly 6,000 people. "

That's twice as many supporters and three times more money than he originally planned for with this cartoon campaign.

The Iowa Independent offers up this look at the money race for the state Senate. Things look pretty darn positive:

Democrats already have a 30-to-20 advantage, and in five battleground districts identified earlier this year by The Iowa Independent, Democratic candidates have an overwhelming advantage in cash on hand, with $224,732 compared to $20,071 for the Republicans. Two of those five seats are currently held by retiring Republicans, meaning the Democrats are in good position to expand their majority in the Senate.

Republicans in the state seem to recognize that challenging upper chamber races will demand an uphill battle and are instead focusing on the House.

There are primaries today in Kansas, Missouri, and Michigan. Check the local blogs if you're interested in following specific races.

We'll keep you posted on any big developments.

Coverage thus far of the down-ballot races in Texas has been interesting. Democrats in the state only need to pick up five seats in the state to claim a majority in the Texas House, so we're paying close attention.

So far, national media has focused on the Obama effect, and his campaign's pledge to hire organizers for the state.

Bloggers like the guys at Burnt Orange Report and Vince at Capitol Annex have reported more about the possibilities of a Democratic victory, straight up. They've even organized a political action committee to make that possibility a reality (about which, I have lots to say, but that's another post).

This story from the Houston Chronicle, though, takes a sort of middle tack. It starts out with this:

One hundred days before the Nov. 4 election, Democratic and Republican political insiders are pondering whether Obama can lose states such as Texas and still make a difference in targeted congressional, county and legislative races by inspiring voter turnout.

But it turns out, that's not really what the insiders said when asked. Sure they think about the presidential, but they're pretty excited about the local races for their own merits:

Democrats in Texas "are very much energized, pretty much across the state," said Democratic political consultant Dan McClung of Houston. "It's not just national politics. It's state politics and county politics that have Democrats energized."

Texas Republican Party Political Director Hans Klingler said fights over partisan control of Harris and Dallas counties are as exciting for party activists as the presidential contest.

"As important as to what happens at the presidential races at the top of the ticket is what the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are going to do at the bottom-of-the-ticket races at the courthouse level," Klingler said.

That's sort of exactly how I feel.

As you can probably tell, I'm fascinated by the upswing in Democratic voter registration in states across the country (Acknowledging all the usual caveats, of course). For me, the larger question is not how this effects the 2008 Election, but what a shift that numbers of the millions might mean in regards to the nation's the long term political trends.

Unsurprisingly, I was intrigued by this piece from Rhodes Cook, which attempts to take a wide-angle view of these changes (bonus points for lots of charts):

In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have scored perceptible gains since the presidential election of 2004 while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million.

Rhodes acknowledges that this shift is occurring in a pool of 96 million registered, partisan voters, so lets temper some enthusiasm here. But as I've written about before, some of those shifts are occurring in some significant places -- in PA, with a shift of million voters to the Democratic column, for example.

There are also some important states for Democrats (particularly legislators) -- OH, MI, VA, MN and WI -- which don't require voters to identify with a party. And I don't think it's too much to assume that similar movement toward the Democratic party is occurring in these states as well.

It’s not easy being a first-time candidate running against an incumbent. Especially if you are a Democrat campaigning in Kansas. To be successful, you need to have something going for you -- even if that’s just the drive to outwork your opponent every day.

But it really does pay to be smart.

Sean Tevis is an information architect from Olathe, Kansas. He’s running against Rep. Arlen Siegfreid, a deeply conservative Republican (even by Sunflower State standards), and apparently, he's got polling showing him running three points back.

He’s also a geek.

Faced with the challenge of raising the $26,000 it will take to make this stage of the race competitive, Tevis found a brilliant, clever way to tell his story and in doing so has captured the imagination of a certain part of the Internet.

Writing in the style of xkcd (a web comic read by the geekiest of geeks), Tevis laid out his reasons for running and asked for 3,000 people to contribute $8.34 to his campaign. And then the Internets responded.

His appeal was picked up by BoingBoing -- an incredibly popular geek culture blog -- and promoted thousands of times by news aggregators Digg and Reddit. All the traffic overwhelmed the servers hosting his website, but the donations kept pouring in.

By 9:30 on Monday morning, 5,298 people had given to his campaign. Previously (as Tevis notes in his comic), no state rep campaign in Kansas had ever attracted even 650 donors, and more remarkable still, Tevis lives in a district where just 6,327 people voted in the last election.

Obviously the specifics of Tevis' story can't necessarily be repeated (no way that every candidate will be able to finance her campaign with a clever comic strip), but there's a whole lot to be said for his creativity.

This is the Internet -- a place where leaders can connect with thousands of passionate potential supporters...if the campaign can find a way to stand out.

(cross posted at TDS)

I'm sitting in an event for the Texas candidates here at Netroots Nation, and two great legislative candidates are sitting on the panel:

Joe Jaworski is a running for the 11th Senate District. He previously served as a member of the Galveston City Council, where he was mayor pro-tem in his last term. On Tuesday, he announced that he had raised more than $801,000 from 1,267 individual contributors so far in this campaign. Jaworski's campaign reports district has the highest Democratic performance of any Republican-held district in the state.

Sherrie Matula is running for House District 129. She is an educator and community activist who ran a very strong campaign for the same seat in 2006. On Wednesday, she announced that she had raised nearly $127,000, leaving her with more cash on hand than her GOP opponent, who is the incumbent. Her campaign is also running a very successful field operation -- she has knocked on more than 2,000 doors since June 1.