It’s a new year, but the story is the same when it comes to Democratic performance in special elections across the country: since March 1st, 2011, our candidates are running an average of 6% ahead of where Democrats finished in the exact same districts in 2010.

The usual exclusions apply: We exclude districts where one major party failed to field a candidate this year or in 2010; districts where Independent candidates won enough votes to skew the comparison; districts which weren’t up in 2010; and districts where deceased candidates remained on the ballot.

That leaves 23 districts we can legitimately describe as offering an apples-to-apples comparison. This is too many to list individually, but they can be grouped in three basic categories: Strongly Democratic, Strongly Republican, and Swing Seats:

Most ominously for the GOP, Democrats are making their biggest gains in swing districts (those where Democrats won at least 40% but no more than 60% of the vote in 2010). Democrats, in fact, are now not only winning the average swing district in blowout fashion, but they swept all eight of the swing seat special elections that were included in the analysis above, picking up four previously Republican-held seats in the process.

Democrats are also showing remarkable progress in strongly Republican areas that gave Democrats less than 40% of the vote in 2010. Democrats actually came within 2.5% of winning two such districts, where the previous Democratic nominees had lost by more than 30 points. If that trend holds, there are a lot of GOP state legislators in supposedly safe seats who could be in for a nasty surprise this November.

But while this apples-to-apples comparison is what we consider the most useful, there’s one more significant data point we became aware of this week: Democrats are now winning the average special election everywhere, a stunning turnaround compared to races prior to March 1st.

The numbers below represent every contested special election, regardless of how useful each individual data point is, relying instead on the Law of Large Numbers to give us a snapshot of Democratic performance. If there was a Democratic and Republican candidate in any one special election since November 2010 (or an Independent who had a respectable showing), the race is included in the analysis below:

These raw numbers reveal a significant gain by Democrats since March 1st but an even more dramatic flight from the GOP. Democrats have pulled marginally ahead, completing almost a 20-point net turnaround from last spring, when the average race resulted in a blowout GOP win.

Most importantly, though, it’s now the Democrats who are gaining seats – we've picked up six since March 1st, and we've only lost two to the Republicans in that same time period. Which means we have every reason to look forward to the elections this fall.

Democrats’ Election Night 2011 just keeps getting better.

You’ve already heard about Democrats’ epic wins tonight in Ohio, Maine, and Iowa.

Victory in a Wisconsin Assembly special keeps Democratic momentum in that state going.

Despite aggressive GOP spending, Democrats expanded our majority in the New Jersey Assembly.

Arizona voters responded to Gov. Brewer’s recent redistricting power-grab by recalling tea party leader and GOP state Sen. Russell Pearce.

Michigan voters recalled a notoriously anti-teacher Republican state Representative.

And despite spending millions and millions of dollars on the effort, the GOP failed to take the majority in the Virginia state Senate.

Democrats even kept the Governor’s mansion in Kentucky.

Well, we’re not done yet.

Today we learned we can add a Washington special election to the Democratic win column.

Democratic state Rep. Sharon Wylie won the seat to which she was appointed earlier this year, soundly defeating her well-known GOP opponent.

This big night for Democrats is more than a sign that the GOP wave of 2010 has receded.

Voters are rebuking GOP candidates and policies all over the country. Republicans exploited their opportunities to legislate by forcing extreme policies through their statehouses, and voters aren’t standing for it. Even millions of dollars in GOP spending can’t obscure the truth:

In 2011 and 2012, Republicans just aren’t a sound investment. 

You’ve already heard about Democrats’ epic wins tonight in Ohio, Maine, and Iowa. Well, we’re not done yet. 

In Wisconsin, Democrats have dominated yet another special election there. Democrat Jill Billings has won the 95^th Assembly District with a whopping 72 percent of the vote. 

Arizonans have responded to Gov. Jan Brewer’s recent redistricting power-grab by recalling one of her GOP accomplices in that partisan coup. Republican Sen. Russell Pearce, author of the notorious and virulently anti-immigrant SB 1070, has fallen in a recall election. 

Despite Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s best efforts, Democrats have successfully retained majorities in both legislative chambers in New Jersey. 

In Michigan, anti-teacher GOP Rep. Paul Scott became the first legislator in the state to be recalled. An election to replace him will be scheduled for next year. 

And finally, despite the millions of dollars state and national Republican and outside interest groups poured into taking the majority in the Virginia Senate, the GOP came up short. Republicans might be excited about the prospect of a tied chamber, but the one outstanding seat, SD 17, remains too close to call. Wednesday morning canvasses have yet to be held, and provisional ballots throughout the district have yet to be counted.  Also, some reported incidents during Tuesday night’s tabulation deserve further attention during the canvassing and certification process. We look forward to monitoring this situation throughout to ensure that every vote is fairly and accurately counted. We expect that Senator Edd Houck will ultimately prevail in the final outcome and that Democrats will continue to hold a majority in the Virginia Senate.

Last night, Democrats added to a growing tally of special election wins. Voters gave Democrats three commanding victories in two states. 

First, in Minnesota, Chris Eaton and state Rep. Jeff Hayden scored huge victories in two open Senate seats, one of which had a habit of going Republican in three previous special elections. 

Eaton won her race with 61 percent of the vote. The Republican candidate, Cory Jensen, finished second with 32 percent. Hayden garnered 68 percent of the vote, placing far ahead of Green Party candidate Farheen Hakeem's 21 percent. 

Eaton said that "a lot of people worked very hard" to pick up the seat, which encompasses Brooklyn Center and part of Brooklyn Park. She was surprised with her strong margin, since Republicans have won many special elections in that area. 

Meanwhile, in Massachusetts, Tricia Farley-Bouvier emerged victorious in a four-way race for a state House seat. Just a day later, she’s already engaged in her new role in the state legislature. 

Following her election Tuesday night, the state representative-elect was on hand this morning for the unveiling of the Education Center at Conte, a educational collaboration between Berkshire Community College and Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, at the Conte Federal Building in Pittsfield. 

There, Farley-Bouvier said she wants to "concentrate on the district." 

These victories bring the total number of Democratic special election wins just since Labor Day to eleven. As this trend continues, Republican state legislators across the country should consider themselves on notice: voters are repeatedly and thoroughly rejecting the brand of right-wing extremism the GOP is pushing in statehouses.

Democrats have won yet another special election. 

The most recent victory came last night in New Hampshire, as Democrats picked up their third House seat from the GOP in that chamber this year. 

Democratic Representative-elect Peter Leishman won the previously Republican seat in a “moderate Republican bastion that is home to [US] Rep. Charles Bass,” according to the Union Leader. His Republican opponent was endorsed by the state Senate President (whose home district overlaps this House district) and the House Speaker, who reportedly was heavily involved in this race. And despite the fact that registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in the district, Leishman defeated his GOP opponent by the largest margin of any New Hampshire special election so far this year. 

One special election pickup is an example, two could be coincidence, but three is certainly a trend—a trend of rejecting the GOP’s attacks on public employees, voter ID measures, attempts to deny some workers even the minimum wage… the list goes on. 

This trend isn’t confined to New Hampshire. Yesterday’s win comes on the heels of a Democratic sweep of six New York Assembly special elections last week, which capped off a summer that saw a considerable list of Democratic victories. In Wisconsin, Democrats not only held all of their Senate seats targeted by the GOP for recalls, but also added two new Democrats to their caucus. Democrats picked up an additional seat in the Wisconsin Assembly. Democrats also won special elections in Maine’s Senate and House. 

This trend of Democratic successes in statehouses has emerged as conservative overreach by GOP leadership in these states reached a crescendo. After a winter and spring of GOP lawmakers attacking middle-class values and pushing right-wing agendas, Democrats began picking up Republican legislative seats. 

As recent statehouse shenanigans in Pennsylvania help demonstrate, Republicans seem unlikely to pull back on their extreme policy pushes any time soon. But this clear trend of Democratic successes should put GOP lawmakers on notice: voters are repeatedly and thoroughly rejecting their brand of right-wing extremism.

This week saw two major developments in Arkansas’ 9th state Senate district. First, on Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Tracy Pennartz formally announced her challenge to incumbent GOP Senator “Speedy” Bruce Holland (more on that in a minute), giving Democrats a top-tier candidate for this conservative-leaning district:

During her public service as a State Representative, Pennartz co-sponsored part of the largest tax cut in Arkansas history which has cut the grocery tax by hundreds of millions of dollars and she is committed to “finishing the job.” In the 2011 legislative session, Pennartz voted for more than $35 million in tax cuts to provide tax relief for small business owners and hard-working Arkansas families.

Due to her strong legislative record, Representative Pennartz is a recipient of the "Legislative Award" from the Mental Health Council of Arkansas and the Arkansas Veterans of Foreign Wars. Other awards include the "Distinguished Legislator Award" from the Arkansas Municipal Association and the "Friend Of Education" Award from the Fort Smith Classroom Association.

But now Holland, who also faces a potentially bitter GOP primary, is in the news again, albeit for a vastly different reason.

His trial was yesterday:

Trial is set for Thursday afternoon for a state lawmaker charged with leading police on a high speed chase last January.

State Senator Bruce Holland of Greenwood allegedly hit speeds of up to 100 miles an hour as he led Perry County Sheriff’s Deputy Ray Byrd on a more than 20-mile chase. Holland admits he was speeding, but claims he didn’t realize there was a police car behind him.

Not only was Holland convicted yesterday of fleeing from police, but the Senator has already allegedly violated a judge's order that he appear for fingerprinting.

It remains to be seen whether headlines like “state lawmaker charged with leading police on a high speed chase” will be fatal to Senator Holland’s career, but they are sure to put an otherwise conservative-leaning district in play for the Democrats next fall.

It’s been three months since we last wrote about the startling trend of Democrats vastly overperforming in special elections compared to how they did last fall in the same districts. But rather than evening out over time, that trend has actually solidified.

With the most recent elections added, Democratic special election candidates are still performing about 9% better than the Democratic candidates who ran in the exact same districts in 2010 – a figure that should disturb Republicans everywhere.

Our model has remained the same, as do the excluded categories. Districts where only one major party fielded candidates in 2010 or in the recent special (14 races); districts which were not up for election in 2010 (12 races); districts where a third party candidate won enough votes to skew the result in either year (2 races); and districts where one major-party candidate died before the election but remained on the ballot (1 race) are all excluded. March 1st remains our cutoff date because those were the first elections after the backlash against GOP anti-worker legislation began in earnest.

That leaves 11 elections in 7 states since March 1st:

*Denotes new addition

For the first time, we have a race in the Deep South that provides a true comparison to 2010 – and the Democratic candidate overperformed at about the national average, despite the district voting nearly 3-1 Republican in 2010. We also now know that Jennifer Daler’s stunning win in New Hampshire was no fluke, as a massive swing in the electorate has handed yet another GOP seat there to the Democrats.

The five Democratic victories in the Wisconsin recalls are just further evidence of this trend, though that data doesn’t fit our model (none of the recall-eligible districts were up for election in 2010).

Fortunately, it doesn’t have to. Because on average, the Democratic candidates in Wisconsin recalls performed almost exactly as well as the Democratic candidates who ran in these districts in 2008, a Democratic wave election. And in that wave election, Democrats only won three of these nine seats; Democrats won the majority of them this time around, even while competing on conservative turf:

*Districts 2 and 14 were uncontested in 2008

The 2008 election left Democratic majorities in 60 legislative chambers. If Democrats are performing as well now as they were in that election – and in fact winning additional seats lost in that election, as is the case - then Republican state legislators across the country have good reason to be worried.

Republican Senators

SD-10 (Harsdorf): Sen. Sheila Harsdorf recently sent a fundraising email bragging about passing a new voter ID law (the same law that would disenfranchise nearly a million Wisconsin residents). Under the bill, voters who go to the polls in the upcoming recall elections will be asked to show ID.

Voters can request ID cards at their local DMV, but of the five counties in Harsdorf’s district, only two of them have DMV offices open more than one day per month, and only one has daily service. What’s more, the DMV in one county (Pierce) will be closed every single day between now and Sheila Harsdorf’s recall election, all because Harsdorf and legislative Republicans waited until two days after Pierce County’s last DMV day to pass their voter ID bill.

SD-14 (Olsen): Sen. Luther Olsen is already ducking debates – and looking rather foolish in the process. After Olsen publicly agreed there should be at least three debates between himself and Democratic challenger Fred Clark, Olsen quickly changed his tune and started ignoring Clark’s efforts to schedule them. When Clark publicly called him on the flip-flop, Olsen’s spokesperson shot back angrily that “The Olsen campaign never received a sigle (sic) phone call or e-mail inviting Sentor (sic) Olsen to a debate.” Clark then provided the media with copies of an email sent to Olsen’s campaign Treasurer and Olsen’s personal account.

Flip-flops like this are pretty normal for Luther Olsen, who initially reacted to Scott Walker’s union-busting bill by calling it “pretty radical” – but then voted for it in lock step with his GOP colleagues.

SD-18 (Hopper): Sen. Randy Hopper is doubling down on his own lock step support for Scott Walker’s union-busting bill, saying he would “absolutely” vote for it all over again – even knowing how outraged his constituents would be and that a state judge would rule that Republicans broke the law to ram the bill through.

Most would view Hopper’s admission that he doesn’t care what voters think as an unforced error. But it may just be an attempt to distract attention from the fact that Hopper’s mistress got a taxpayer-funded job and a 35% raise working for the Walker administration - without ever having to apply for either.

SD-32 (Kapanke): Sen. Dan Kapanke is fast becoming the recall season’s most gaffe-prone Republican – and he can ill-afford mistakes in his heavily Democratic district. First, Kapanke was secretly recorded telling a GOP meeting that he hopes all the state employees in his district “are sleeping” on Election Day.

Then last week, it was revealed that Kapanke’s allies in the La Crosse County Republican Party are searching for a stalking horse candidate willing to run as a Democrat – for no other reason than to force a primary so Kapanke could delay having to face the voters himself.

Democratic Senators

SD-30 (Hansen): There was some shuffling of Democratic Sen. Dave Hansen’s prospective opponents last week (recall petitions against him remain under review). Dropping out is Brown County Board member Mary Scray. Jumping in, however, is recall organizer David VanderLeest, whose recent profile in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted his “long court record, including a bankruptcy, a home foreclosure, an unpaid judgment, building code violations and a misdemeanor conviction.”

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Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's agent or committee.}

In one of the GOP’s most blatantly personal gerrymandering moves so far, Virginia Republicans dismantled DLCC Treasurer and state House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong’s Martinsville-based 10th District, splitting it into several new districts with a GOP incumbent in each of them.

But Leader Armstrong announced yesterday that rather than taking the path of least resistance, he will be challenging Republican Charles Poindexter in the 9th District, where Leader Armstrong’s family roots go back over 160 years:

Anyone who wants to run for the House of Delegates should be able to state why. There are many challenges facing Franklin, Henry and Patrick counties. I believe I have the experience, the leadership and the energy to help find solutions to our problems. And I will continue to fight til the cows come home for a fair shake for hard-working families in our area.

So in announcing my bid for reelection I've come back to my roots. To a place that meant so much to me as a boy. No one has to tell me how to find the 77 Restaurant. Or Callaway or Snow Creek or Penhook or Boone's Mill. Quite a few people in my old district have urged me to continue to represent them..that they don't want to lose my voice in Richmond. I have listened.

Much of the newly constituted 9th house district is the old 10th house district. It contains western Henry, which I have represented for 20 years and Patrick County, which I have represented for 10 years. Moreover I represented southern Franklin County in my first 10 years in the House which included Ferrum and Henry. So despite what anyone might say over the coming months, this area is home. I was born here and raised here, and my family's roots in this area go back over 160 years.

How gutsy a call is this? Very. The 9th District is one of the most conservative of the districts which gained parts of the old 10th.

But Del. Poindexter has big reasons to worry about this upcoming race, starting with his own weak performance in previous elections. Poindexter dramatically underperformed the last time he faced major-party opposition, winning with just 46% of the vote in 2007 (John McCain dominated that district 62%-38% just a year later).

Leader Armstrong also begins the race with a pocket of strength in Patrick and Henry Counties, which he already represents in the old 10th District. Armstrong outperformed his district-wide total in both counties in 2009, winning them with nearly 58% of the vote in a challenging election year. And the northern half of the new 9th District, Franklin County, was the Democratic nominee’s strongest county in that 2007 race, as he nearly matched Poindexter’s 46%.

Together, these results suggest that Republicans will need more than the stroke of a pen to keep Ward Armstrong down.

We awoke yesterday to a world in which Democrats have won four special election victories in four consecutive weeks. 

In all of these specials, Democrats dramatically improved on their 2010 performance in the same districts. Three of the four victories flipped those seats from Republican to Democratic hands.

Many political observers attribute the Democratic win in New York’s 26^th Congressional District to national-level GOP overreach on Medicare. Similarly, the dramatic improvement in Democratic performance in recent statehouse special elections is likely tied to the extreme right-wing agendas the GOP is pushing in legislatures across the country. Congressional Republicans’ drive to turn Medicare into a voucher program has extreme policy kin in GOP statehouse agendas: the Wisconsin GOP’s attempt to eviscerate workers’ rights, the Maine GOP’s work to weaken child labor laws, and the New Hampshire GOP’s elimination of the minimum wage, to name only a few.

“Buyer’s remorse” may be a very real phenomenon that could continue to affect elections throughout the rest of the cycle.

Incidentally, the next significant electoral event on the horizon is a direct result of voters repudiating the extreme policies of a Republican majority elected in 2010. The recall elections in Wisconsin will begin on July 12, when at least three (probably more) Republican state senators will face voters over a year ahead of schedule.

Democratic victories in Wisconsin’s recalls this summer would do much more than extend this run of electoral successes and provide symbolic vindication for standing up to right-wing agendas that hurt working Americans. With six Republican state senators destined to appear on the ballot, Democrats have a real opportunity to retake the majority in Wisconsin’s upper chamber. Just as the NY-26 special was widely seen as a referendum on proposed Medicare changes, the Wisconsin recalls are being seen as specific rebukes of Gov. Walker and the state GOP’s attacks on workers’ rights.