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New York
The New York Senate!
For the first time in almost 70 years, Democrats will win the New York Senate and hold majorities in both chambers of the legislature.
After tonight, we will hold at least 32 out of the 62 seats in the Senate.
From the New York Times:
Democrats turned out in historic numbers from Buffalo to Long Island, overcoming a vaunted Republican political machine and defeated two Republican senators — Caesar Trunzo, of Long Island, and Serphin R. Maltese, of Queens — whose combined years in office spanned more than a half a century.
Prior to this election, Republicans controlled the chamber by two seats.
The changing state of Western New York
New York is another big state with a closely watched legislative contest. Republicans currently hold a one seat majority in the state senate, and control of the chamber could have a significant impact on Congressional redistricting after the next census.
Much of the attention is focused on competitive districts in the western part of the state, which is not historically a heated battleground for political races. Last week, the New York Times looked at the contests in the area and discussed the changes that have put the region into play:
The shift in the political terrain has become clear only in recent months, taking both parties by surprise and spurring Republican and Democratic officials to rapidly retool their strategies, particularly in the pivotal campaigns for the State Senate, where Republicans hold a one-seat majority.
The parties have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into a series of Senate races in western New York that could decide control of the chamber for years.
Perhaps no immediate factor has done more to put the region into play than the financial crisis, which has hit Western New York particularly hard. But the area's demographics have changed as well, with the number of Republicans decreasing while the population of Democrats and Independents is on the rise.
Democrats will need to do well here on Election Day if they hope to put win control of the upper chamber for the first time in almost 70 years.
Looking at the NY Senate
Democrats in New York only need to win two more seats to gain control of the state senate for the first time in almost 70 years. This week, Newsday takes a look at the election:
Voter turnout is expected to be high and to favor Democrats because of their party's historic presidential candidate Barack Obama, together with angst about the economy and anger at President George W. Bush over the war in Iraq.
However, Republican senators still enjoy a fundraising advantage and GOP presidential candidate John McCain is predicted to do well in rural areas such as the north country, where his party hopes to win back a seat lost in February to Darrel Aubertine of Watertown.
Things are so bad that the new GOP leader, Sen. Dean Skelos, has taken to arguing voters will side with his party to keep balance in government:
"If the Senate were to flip, you would have every branch of government controlled by the Democrats, which I think is dangerous in terms of checks and balances. I believe people want balance and we, the Republican majority in the Senate, provide that."
In my experience, that's a losing argument. Polling seems to back me up:
Fifty-two percent of the voters surveyed by Quinnipiac University from July 31 to Aug. 4 backed a Democratic takeover of the Senate. Only 32 percent supported the status quo.
Perhaps it's worth noting at this point that Skelos got the job because his predecessor -- Sen. Joseph Bruno -- resigned mid-session. I'm not alone in believing that Bruno retired because he had no interest serving in the minority.
Bruno's new gig
New York has a law about retired legislators doing business with their former colleagues. Legally, they are forbidden from lobbying the legislature for 2 years after leaving office.
But there's nothing stopping a retired lawmaker from lobbying the executive branch, and that's a loophole that must make Joseph Bruno -- the former Republican leader in the NY Senate -- happy.
Just four days after leaving office, Bruno has found a new job as the chief executive for an information technology firm:
Mr. Bruno’s new employer, CMA Consulting Services, has contracts with the offices of the attorney general and comptroller, as well as the Office of General Services.
And while Bruno can't take the trip down to Albany, the firm he now runs has plenty of business at the state house:
State records show that CMA has hired lobbyists to represent its interests in Albany. In 2007, it spent almost $95,000 lobbying for two bills that never became law. One would have set up a pilot program to monitor traffic in Nassau County using cameras similar to those that CMA sells.
CMA will also put Bruno in a position to continue to help state Republicans. Last cycle, the firm gave more than $5,000 to the New York State Senate Republican Campaign Committee. I'm guessing that number might even go up a bit next this year.
While Bruno hasn't disclosed what he'll make running the firm, we do know that he's entitled to a Senate pension of between $90,000 and $100,000 a year. Money he'll continue to make as he lobbies the state.
Can't really blame him, though. All that extra cash ought to come in handy with his legal bills...
Finally, it's worth mentioning that the likely reason for Bruno's retirement has to do with Democratic chances in the fall. We believe that we have a great opportunity to pick up the NY Senate, and I've heard a lot of people say that Bruno left office because he had no desire to serve in the minority.
It would be fantastic if he didn't recognize quite as many people when he is cleared to start lobbying for CMA.
Evaluating Bruno's Retirement
To me, the retirement of Sen. Joseph Bruno means one thing -- he believes that the Republicans will lose their majority in the New York Senate, and he has no desire to serve in the minority.
Already this cycle, we’ve seen some really good indications that might be correct.
On February 26, Democrat Darrel Aubertine won a special election in New York's 48th Senate District -- a seat that had been held by the GOP since 1880, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 78,454 to 46,824.
Three weeks earlier, Democrat Craig M. Johnson won a special election in New York’s 7th Senate District -- a seat that had been held by the GOP for more than a century.
Things were so bad in February that Mayor Michael Bloomberg -- the GOP’s single biggest Senate benefactor -- had to write a $500,000 check to keep them competitive. Prior to that little gift, he contributed at least $675,000 between October 2006 and December 2007.
So now, there are 32 Republicans in the New York Senate and 30 Democrats. In a traditional election, there are Republican seats (like those in New York City, which Reid Wilson points out) which would be vulnerable. But remember -- this is a presidential election year, and Democrats have a significant enthusiasm advantage. When I look at the map, New York is one of our top targets.
And this is all important not simply because Bruno and the Senate Republicans have managed to bottle up significant pieces of legislation and prevent a major Democratic agenda from getting a hearing in a very progressive state but also because New York is slated to lose two Congressional seats in the next round of redistricting.
Its delegation to Washington will be the smallest the state has sent since 1823. Democrats control the House and the governor’s mansion -- gaining a majority in the upper chamber will give us the strength we need to draw congressional districts in a way that reflects the progressive nature of the state’s electorate.




