demographics

By Matt Compton at October 30, 2008 - 4:16pm
Elections Analysis

The changing state of Western New York

New York is another big state with a closely watched legislative contest. Republicans currently hold a one seat majority in the state senate, and control of the chamber could have a significant impact on Congressional redistricting after the next census.

Much of the attention is focused on competitive districts in the western part of the state, which is not historically a heated battleground for political races. Last week, the New York Times looked at the contests in the area and discussed the changes that have put the region into play:

The shift in the political terrain has become clear only in recent months, taking both parties by surprise and spurring Republican and Democratic officials to rapidly retool their strategies, particularly in the pivotal campaigns for the State Senate, where Republicans hold a one-seat majority.

The parties have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into a series of Senate races in western New York that could decide control of the chamber for years.

Perhaps no immediate factor has done more to put the region into play than the financial crisis, which has hit Western New York particularly hard. But the area's demographics have changed as well, with the number of Republicans decreasing while the population of Democrats and Independents is on the rise.

Democrats will need to do well here on Election Day if they hope to put win control of the upper chamber for the first time in almost 70 years.

By Matt Compton at June 23, 2008 - 12:41pm
Elections Analysis

Blue Trends in PA

In Pennsylvania, longtime Republican strongholds in counties throughout the state are slowly shifting away from the GOP.

On Thursday, in Dauphin County -- which includes the state capitol of Harrisburg -- the numbers of registered voters looked like this: 81,489 Democrats and 81,340 Republicans.

In Philadelphia suburbs like Bucks and Montgomery counties, the trend is the same.

Waves of new Democratic voter were registered during the heated primary contest between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. That month of intensive campaigning certainly helped to put some areas over the top.

But this change is part of a longer-term demographic trend, and the end of the primary hasn't stopped the movement:

Statewide, Democrats have added voters since the April 22 primary, picking up 37,529 registrations while Republicans have lost 1,504, according to figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State [...]

From November 2007 to April's primary, the Republican Party lost 58,119 registered voters.

We still have a lot of work to do between now and November to maintain our control of the Penn. House, but information like this is heartening.