The President’s reform plan hasn’t even passed yet, but right-wing state lawmakers are already trying to strip out key elements of the plan at the state level.

They’ve only managed to pass their bills in a few states like Arizona and Utah, but they’ve filed new legislation to obstruct federal health care reform in 35 states. And if reform supporters win the final showdown in Congress this week, we can expect this trend to continue.

But the stakes are just as high at the state level as they are in Congress. If Democrats fail to protect health care reform from state-level obstruction, millions of Americans who are counting on health care reform to improve -- or potentially save -- their lives will be left out in the cold:

But the $28 billion in Medicaid money is not the whole picture. These reforms will extend Medicaid coverage to nearly 8 million individuals in these states, while millions more will qualify for premium subsidies to help purchase private coverage through health insurance exchanges. This will reduce costs for employers, state governments, and insured individuals, because as these uninsured individuals and families gain coverage, the cost-shift of uncompensated care will diminish. It will also help states out because these new Medicaid eligibility levels will absorb those under 133 percent of the poverty level in state insurance programs, with full federal support for the first several years of the program.

We spend a great deal of time on this blog talking about what states are doing to reform health care. A number of states have made us proud during the last legislative session, and we expect them to continue pushing the envelope for reform, no matter what Congress decides to do.

But if we win the vote this week for health care reform, this won’t be over. The fight will just move to the state legislatures, and we predict it will be every bit as ferocious as the fight to pass the President’s health care plan in Congress.

Here at the DLCC, we’re determined to be ready.

The DLCC recently released a 2010 campaign strategy memo discussing what’s at stake for redistricting in this year’s elections, as well as what the DLCC is doing to put Democrats in the best possible position to influence the redistricting process:

In a memo sent to Democratic leaders and activists on Monday, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's Executive Director Michael Sargeant highlighted 15 key battlegrounds for the 2010 election and called for the establishment of a $20 million "Redistricting Fund" to help the party win those races.

"The DLCC is determined to run the largest democratic redistricting mobilization in history this year to ensure that our state legislative candidates have the resources needed to win against well-¬heeled Republican special interests," according to the memo, which was passed by a Democratic source to the Huffington Post. "To make this possible, we have established the DLCC's Redistricting Fund to deploy $20 million to races that will have the greatest impact on reapportionment."

Republicans insist the wind will be at their backs in 2010, but as DLCC Executive Director Michael Sargeant pointed out in an interview with the Associated Press, that hasn’t stopped state-level Democrats from making gains in the past:

Democrats are more optimistic about their chances in the states, noting they gained legislative seats this year in special elections in GOP-leaning areas of Virginia and Kentucky, even as approval ratings for President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress sagged.

"We've been successful at the state legislative level whether it's a good year or a bad year for Democrats nationally," said Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Talk of a Republican surge also ignores the fact that GOP state legislative recruiting this year has been an absolute disaster in states like West Virginia and Arkansas, both of which were supposed to be at the epicenter of the Republican “wave.”

After defeating scandal-plagued Republican Delegate Phil Hamilton in 2009, Virginia Democrats made ethics reform a priority in the 2010 session. Yesterday, despite their minority status in the House, Democrats successfully passed an ethics overhaul authored by DLCC Finance Chairman and State House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong.

But while Armstrong is credited with writing the legislation, it was truly a team effort among House and Senate Democrats:

Armstrong, a Democrat from Henry County, said the Hamilton case demonstrated that the Assembly's self-policing system is broken and the voters expected it to be fixed.

"The next time something like that happens - and it will - we'll have a mechanism in place to deal with it," he said.

Armstrong's bill incorporated proposals from Del. Robin Abbott of Newport News, the Democrat who unseated Hamilton. She ran on a platform that included ethics reform.

"I'm very pleased" by the Senate vote, Abbott said Wednesday. "It gives us some transparency in the process, and it also provides protection against frivolous complaints. I got everything I wanted."

The vote was a vindication of sorts for Sen. Ralph Northam, a first-term Democrat from Norfolk, who sponsored a companion bill that closely tracked the Armstrong measure and was unexpectedly shelved by a House committee last week.

Senate Republicans voted en-mass for the bill on final passage, but not before trying to kill the bill on a technicality. All 18 Republicans voted for an amendment that made a “minor wording change” that did not affect the substance of the bill. Had the amendment passed, the bill would have gone back to the House of Delegates, where the Republican majority could have quietly let the measure die.

Democratic senators voted unanimously to keep the decision in the Senate’s hands, and because of their narrow majority, the bill now awaits the governor’s signature.

West Virginia isn’t the only state where Republicans have legislative recruiting troubles. Yesterday afternoon was the filing deadline in Arkansas, and the Republicans’ field in that state is even more of a disaster than in West Virginia.

According to the Secretary of State’s list of officially filed candidates, Arkansas Republicans largely abandoned the field in three key races:

• State House: Republicans failed to field a single candidate in 44 out of 100 State House seats. That means Democrats only have to win seven of the remaining 56 seats to guarantee a majority.
  
  

• State Senate: Arkansas Republicans also left uncontested 8 of the 17 State Senate seats up for grabs in 2010. Between these and the Republican-held seats they have to defend, it is now mathematically impossible for Republicans to win control of the chamber.
  
  

• Attorney General: One of three statewide offices Republicans failed to contest, the Attorney General race is significant because the winner sits on the three-member Board of Apportionment, which will redistrict the state legislature in 2011. Democrats are now guaranteed at least one of the three seats.

For Republicans, it's embarrassing enough that this happened in a state John McCain carried by 20 percent. But more surprising still, the GOP couldn’t even find people willing to run in seats that should be at the top of their target list.

To give just one example, we had been watching House District 21, where the incumbent Democrat announced his resignation effective June 6th. McCain earned nearly 65 percent of the two-party vote in that district, but not a single Republican candidate stepped up to run for the open seat.

You can’t beat somebody with nobody. And thanks to Republican candidate recruitment failures in West Virginia, Democrats in both legislative chambers are in excellent shape heading into the 2010 elections:

In a news release from Democrats, they noted the GOP failed to find any candidates for 31 of the state's 117 legislative races. (…)

"Nationally, there has been a great deal of chatter about a Republican tidal wave coming in 2010, but clearly that is not the case in West Virginia," Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey said.

"When you do not have quality candidates stepping forward to challenge incumbents, that speaks volumes."

According to the candidate list on file with the Secretary of State’s office, 4 of those 31 uncontested Democratic seats are in the State Senate, where only half the chamber is up for re-election in 2010. But Republicans are also defending 4 seats of their own. That means even if the Republicans somehow managed to win every single race in which they have a candidate, they would still fail to take control of the chamber.

The situation is almost as bad in the House of Delegates, where 27 Democratic-held districts lack Republican candidates. It only takes 51 seats to hold an outright majority, meaning Democrats are already halfway there.

All told, across the state, Democrats filed candidates in all but eleven legislative races.

Virginia Democrats continued their rebound last night by keeping control of the vacant 41st Delegate district in a Fairfax County special election. Like the special Senate election in January, most observers gave Republicans the edge in this race, coming so soon after the 2009 gubernatorial race. But Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn leads unofficial returns by 42 votes over Republican Kerry Bolognese:

Education was the issue that dominated this race. Filler-Corn clearly struck a chord with voters with her message of fighting back against devastating cuts to Fairfax County schools proposed by Republicans in the legislature -- cuts that would lay off hundreds of teachers and support staff in a rapidly-growing county.

Congratulations to DLCC Board member and Virginia House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong and the Virginia House Caucus for running a great campaign.

The first state legislative seat to change parties in a special election this year went to Democrat Dave Marsden of Virginia, who scored an election-night upset over Republican Steve Hunt to win the 37th Senate District in Fairfax County. The seat was left open when Republican Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General in the fall.

The Marsden Campaign’s impressive get-out-the-vote operation reveals itself in the district vote totals. Not only did Marsden win the early vote by more than 2-1 (providing just a few more votes than his total margin of victory), but turnout in his best-performing district was a full 9 points higher than in Steve Hunt’s best district.

Though 2010 is still young, this victory could turn out to be the most important special election all year. It gives Virginia Democrats a welcome shot of energy after a disappointing 2009 campaign, and it solidifies Democratic control of the State Senate ahead of redistricting. The Democratic margin there will now be 22-18, making it unlikely that any unforeseen events could flip control to the Republicans.

Congratulations to DLCC Board member and Virginia Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw and his political staff for running a great campaign.

Term limits promise to shake up legislative politics – and create unique opportunities for Democrats – in a number of states where term-limited legislators are disproportionately Republican. One such state is Montana, where The Missoulian recently previewed the upcoming legislative contests:

State Senate: 25 of its 50 seats are up for election this year, including 15 that are open because term limits bar the incumbent from running. Sixteen of the contested seats are held by Republicans; nine by Democrats. Republicans currently hold a 27-23 majority in the Senate.

State House: All 100 House seats are up for grabs this year, including 14 that are vacant because of term limits. The current House is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans.

In the Montana Senate, Republicans have ten open seats to defend because of term limits, while the Democrats only have five. There are also slightly fewer term-limited Democrats in the State House than Republicans, and with both chambers so closely divided, any small advantage could tip control to one side or another.

Moderate Republican State Rep. Jim Campbell has finally had it with the Maine Republican Party, led by the state’s two U.S. Senators, which has spent the better part of a year working to obstruct meaningful health care reform:

This move has been a long time coming for me. I have been very frustrated with the Republican Party in Maine, and nationally, for their failure to address the health care crisis in a meaningful way. Nobody has all the answers, but the Republican Party has none when it comes to health care reform.

This move is about the working people and our seniors who need action. I became a Republican because I believed the party stood for something. I hope to send a message to the Republican Party — and the Democratic Party — that enough is enough; it is time to stop blocking progress in the hope of partisan gain.

Rep. Campbell’s switch leaves the Maine House of Representatives with 95 Democrats, 55 Republicans and Campbell as the lone independent.

In an historic and unanimous vote yesterday afternoon, New Jersey Democrats chose Sheila Oliver as the first African-American woman ever to serve as the state’s Assembly Speaker.

After the vote, Democratic legislators expressed confidence that Oliver and incoming Majority Leader Joseph Cryan will provide effective leadership in their new roles:

"(Oliver) was very soulful," Assemblyman John McKeon (D-Essex) said. "Joe (Cryan) is very practical. I think they'll be a great team."

Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo (D-Mercer) said Oliver will be an effective speaker despite her relative inexperience in the Legislature.

"Her ability to put people together is one of her strong assets," he said. "And she has the support of all of us."

Oliver will lead a chamber where Democrats hold a dominant, 47-33 majority after successfully defending all but one of their Assembly seats earlier this November. Her Democratic counterpart in the State Senate will be incoming Senate President Joseph Sweeney, who was also chosen yesterday afternoon.