One of the most interesting states for 2010 redistricting will be Louisiana. The state is likely to lose a congressional seat, and Democrats fighting to maintain their state legislative majorities against a strong Republican trend will also have to navigate dramatic population changes caused by Hurricane Katrina.

All this has brought national attention to Louisiana’s redistricting challenge, and the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College is rolling out a district-by-district guide to Louisiana redistricting, starting with an overview of which parties control which levers of power:

Democrats are in clear control of the Senate with 23 seats compared to the Republicans’ 16 seats. The situation in the House is not as clear because Democrats control 52 seats, Republicans control 50, and there are 3 Independents (one of the Independents, Michael Jackson, switched from being a Democrat in 2008). The House leadership is split between the parties. For example, the Speaker of the House and the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee are Republicans while the Speaker Pro Tempore and the Chairman of the Education Committee are Democrats. The close margin in the House and the split partisanship in the leadership could create compromise or could more likely encourage a very partisan situation as both parties fight to get enough votes to pass their plan. Democrats are in a position of power as they control the Senate, but the Republicans will also have a significant say because of the close margins in the House and because the Republican Governor can veto any plan.

The challenge, then, will be for Democrats to produce a redistricting plan that 1. Unifies the House caucus by sufficiently navigating regional and other divisions, 2. Wins the backing of either the Republican Governor or a significant number of Republican legislators, 3. Adheres to Voting Rights Act requirements, and 4. Produces enough Democratic-leaning districts to keep control of the legislature and as many competitive congressional districts as possible. Some (or all) of these requirements already conflict, but the situation is aggravated by Katrina, which decimated the population of New Orleans and some of the gulf-coast parishes while causing rapid growth in Baton Rouge and the New Orleans suburbs.

The Republicans’ challenge is much simpler: create new legislative targets for Republican takeover and make all the state’s congressional districts as inhospitable as possible for Democrats (excepting, of course, a majority African-American district required by the Voting Rights Act). Governor Jindal’s veto will be the key source of leverage for the Republicans, but the state Constitution gives Democrats a key safety valve if Jindal and the Republicans overplay their hand:

(B) Reapportionment by Supreme Court. If the legislature fails to reapportion as required in Paragraph (A), the supreme court, upon petition of any elector, shall reapportion the representation in each house as provided in Paragraph (A).

Louisiana Supreme Court justices are chosen by partisan elections, and Democrats currently hold 4 of the 7 seats (including the Chief Justice).

The Rose Institute's second installment, focusing on New Orleans-area congressional districts, is also now available.

This Saturday, Democrats Norbert “Norby” Chabert and Ledricka Johnson Thierry successfully defended the vacant 20th Senate and 40th House districts in closely-fought special election runoffs. The heavily-Democratic HD-40 was never seriously in doubt for the party, but the overwhelmingly-conservative SD-20 supported John McCain by a 72%-28% margin in November and featured a well-financed Republican campaign by Brent Callais of Cutoff, LA.

Chabert won the contest by a convincing 54.3% to 45.7%, for a total margin of 1526 votes in the Terrebonne- and Lafourche-based 20th District:

In addition to the district’s conservative leanings, Callais had the advantage of a high-profile campaign and fundraising visit from Republican Governor Bobby Jindal (which reportedly netted nearly $100,000) and heavy spending by the Louisiana Republican Party. Callais and the Republicans blanketed the district with mailers accusing Chabert of supporting President Obama’s healthcare initiative, but Chabert wisely focused his campaign on local issues like the South Louisiana shrimping industry, coastal levee protection, and the future of public hospitals in Houma, LA.

Just like in last week’s special election in Kentucky, the national attacks clearly fell flat, and the Democrat’s mastery of local issues won the race.

Local officials in southern Mississippi, New Orleans, and Louisiana’s Gulf Coast parishes have long feared a drop in political representation and federal and state funding due to population losses from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. New Orleans officials have even taken the extraordinary step of assigning a full-time staff member to coordinate Census activities.

Now, a regional coalition of non-profit organizations has proposed a more drastic solution: a “Special Census” to be conducted in 2012 or 2013, in addition to the regular Census in 2010. The Times-Picayune explains how that would work:

A special census, in theory, would mitigate any shortfall in federal financing by setting a new, official head count for use in many payment formulas. In the past, such exercises have usually been requested and financed by localities that believe the cost of a new count will be outweighed by the increase in federal grant money it will spur.

Advocates on Monday specified that Congress should pay for the special censuses they advocate.

Contrary to expectations, New Orleans' population grew faster in the fourth year of recovery than in the third, while all parishes in the New Orleans area added residents, according to the latest New Orleans Index, which gauges Katrina recovery using a range of social and economic indicators.

There is ample precedence for this kind of action, and an updated count in 2012 could be used to reallocate state funding in the states involved (according to the Census Bureau’s website on Special Census counts).

In theory at least, the updated figures could also be used to update the states’ various redistricting plans, but it would be unprecedented for Special Census results to be used to recalculate each state’s number of congressional seats. Also unclear is whether federal funding formulas would actually award extra money to areas shown to be gaining population, since a Special Census might not reveal how many of the new residents came from other areas of the same state.

The Louisiana Legislature voted several weeks ago to dramatically improve state tax incentives for small-scale solar power systems. Unlike other states that focused on creating new tax incentive programs during the 2009 legislative session (several of which we profiled in last month’s Progress Report), Louisiana changed their existing 50 percent tax credits to encourage more participation, and the new changes have renewable energy advocates buzzing:

The act helps foster a solar leasing business, where an installer pays the money upfront, gets the tax credit and a homeowner leases the system back from them.

"You, in essence, pay a bill to them, just like you would pay your utility bill through Entergy or any other utility," [South Coast Solar CEO Troy] Von Otnott said. "At the end of the lease, after they've made their return on investment, you're allowed to purchase that system for a dollar."

Before the change in the law, it wasn't possible for anyone, other than the homeowner, to claim the state tax credit. Now, though, the new law will benefit not just third parties, but also could be used by developers.

"If you're a developer and you want to do a new development that involves solar, the developers can also claim the tax credit for all the solar they put on the homes," [Alliance for Affordable Energy representative Christian] Roselund said. "So, developers and contractors being able to claim this credit really opens the door for a lot more solar in new construction."

If successful, this new flexibility in the state’s solar incentive program will encourage a new wave of solar equipment installation across Louisiana and allow thousands of homeowners to enjoy lower energy bills.

Legislative Act 467, which allowed these changes, was passed unanimously by both houses of the Democratically-controlled legislature.

Since Louisiana’s next legislative general election is in 2011, the state’s current batch of legislators will be responsible for drawing maps for State House and Senate, U.S. House, and several other state commissions. And with Louisiana likely to lose one of its seven U.S. House seats after the 2010 Census, the fight over how to draw a six-seat map is already underway.

The conservative Louisiana Family Forum – one of the most powerful special interests in the state – fired its first shot back in March, when it released a proposed map that would combine the Democratic-held 3rd district with the Democratic-leaning areas of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Their plan is clearly a non-starter, partly because of regional rivalries between New Orleans and Baton Rouge legislators and partly because Democrats control both legislative houses, but other groups are beginning to join the fight:

Meanwhile, counter maps are already being created to push back against the Family Forum map. One of those maps made its way onto a Louisiana political blog on Monday. That map sought to retain both the 2nd and 3rd districts by combining most of Melancon’s district with nearly all of Republican Rep. Charles Boustany’s 7th district seat to form a new 3rd district.

Another early idea being tossed around by some Democrats involves creating a six- district map by combining a portion of northern Louisiana’s 4th and 5th districts and dividing the southern parts of those districts among the four remaining districts.

For reference, Louisiana’s current congressional maps are posted online at nationalatlas.gov.

Whatever the final product in 2010, Louisiana’s new maps will likely reflect the precarious political balance in the state. While Democrats narrowly control the legislature, 2010 redistricting bills can be vetoed by Republican Governor Bobby Jindal, and Louisiana legislators’ regional loyalties might have as much impact on the process as their political loyalties. In addition, any redistricting plan must first be approved by the U.S. Justice Department under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

With Democrats nursing a 4-seat lead in the Louisiana State Senate and a 1-seat lead in the State House, the three legislative special elections this past Saturday had statewide implications. But despite state Republicans making a serious run at all three seats over the weekend, Democrats pitched a shutout in their two open seats, preventing any Republican advance in the Legislature.

Louisiana legislative elections use a unique, non-partisan primary system where the top two vote-getters move on to a runoff election. In both open Democratic seats – the New Orleans based 97th House District and the 24th Senate District based in Opelousas and northern Lafayette – all runoff participants will be Democrats.

The Senate runoff will be the more interesting of the two, featuring members of two famous local political families, Patricia “Pat” Cravins and State Representative Elbert L. Guillory. Rep. Guillory finished first on Saturday, but the Cravins Family has a deep well of support in the district, making the runoff a true tossup. In New Orleans, Democrats Jared Brossett and Leroy Doucette will compete in the runoff for the 97th House District.

The third seat, the Republican-held 16th Senate District anchored in the southeast suburbs of Baton Rouge, stayed in Republican hands. The result was disappointing but expected in one of the toughest districts in the state for Democrats. I should know – I worked that territory for a special congressional election in 2008, and it would have taken an exceptional Democrat to win or even come close.

With the legislature so close in Louisiana, every seat counts. Even without gaining the 16th Senate seat, state Democrats should be proud that they beat back two Republican challenges so soundly this weekend.