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2009
Spotlight New Jersey
In a night when state Democrats were looking for good news, the New Jersey Assembly offered a sharp counterpoint to elections elsewhere.
Headed into Tuesday, Democrats held a solid majority, but Republicans had been talking about mounting a serious effort to cut into that margin, if not win the eight seats they would need to tie the chamber.
The Democratic Assembly Caucus met that challenge head-on. In the weeks before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization. That in turn allowed them to counter a bad set of national trends and a strong statewide campaign from GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie.
Last night, the Democratic Caucus protected all of its incumbents. The only seat that appears to have changed hands was left open by retirement in District 4.
The NJ Democratic Assembly Caucus did nearly everything right in this year's election, and the advantages they banked during the summer allowed them to offset the Republican climate in the state last night.
Tonight's Results
Heading into the 2009 Election, Republicans and Democrats each held a majority they needed to protect. Tonight, the status quo remains the same.
In Virginia, buoyed by a set of strong statewide candidates and a national climate that put history on their side, Republicans have made gains in the House of Delegates. But the GOP believed that this election might help them wipe out all the Democratic gains of the past six years, and it did not.
We’ve known since June that Republicans were planning a hard charge to retake control of the New Jersey Assembly, but the Democratic Assembly Caucus appears to have met the challenge head-on. In the weeks before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization, and that ultimately allowed them protect their chamber.
Across the country, Democrats still hold 60 legislative chambers and control 55 percent of the nation's partisan legislative seats. Our current position remains a solid one heading into the final election before the Census and the next round of Congressional and legislative redistricting.
Election Day!
Voters head to the polls today in elections across the country. Here are the voting hours for the legislative races we will be following most closely.
Virginia: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
New Jersey: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Virginia Delegate Campaign Roundup – 10-27-2009
Election Day is exactly one week away, so call every Democrat you know in Virginia, and remind them to vote! Meanwhile, these are a few of the Virginia Delegate races making news this past week:
- HD-10: Democratic Minority Leader Ward Armstrong continues to set a good example for his fellow delegates by taking nothing for granted in his re-election campaign. Armstrong, who also serves as the DLCC’s Finance Chair, has sent word that he’ll be busing local constituents to a November 19th hearing on a proposed utility rate hike. Armstrong has spent more than a year leading opposition to the rate hike.
- HD-23: Democratic Delegate Shannon Valentine of Lynchburg just picked up a late endorsement from Preston Bryant, a prominent local Republican from the Lynchburg area. Bryant served ten years in the House of Delegates before joining Governor Kaine’s administration, but he sided with Valentine because of her strong record in the legislature and her opponent’s “distasteful campaign tactics.”
- HD-42: Several families of Virginia Tech shooting victims have come out against Republican Dave Albo’s re-election bid. The families believe Albo used political maneuvering to block a bill to close the gun-show loophole, despite his promise to support the legislation. And when the families asked Albo to explain his betrayal, he told them to “just forget it.” Albo’s Democratic challenger is Greg Werkheiser.
- HD-51, 52: U.S. Senator Jim Webb campaigned with 51st District Delegate Paul Nichols and 52nd District Democratic candidate Luke Torian (who’s running in an open seat) over the weekend. Both are considered key races in any scenario where Democrats reclaim a House majority.
- HD-99: Democratic Delegate Albert Pollard also earned a late endorsement from a well-respected local Republican, former State Senator John Chichester, who represented the area for nearly 30 years until 2007. Meanwhile, another group of 15 victims’ families from Virginia Tech and Appalachian School of Law has denounced Republican challenger Catherine Crabill for encouraging people to take up arms in the event of an election loss (the infamous "Bullet Box" speech).
- State Senate: The Richmond Times-Dispatch is looking past this Tuesday for clues about how the Virginia elections will affect the ballance of power in the State Senate. Three sitting Senators are running for other offices (Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republicans Ken Stolle and Ken Cuccinelli). Each of these seats would be filled by special election if the Senators win their elections next week. In addition, whoever wins the governorship may try to appoint Senators to his cabinet, triggering even more special elections.
Second shoe drops in 51st Virginia Delegate Race: Republican now facing criminal investigation
Republican Rich Anderson, who’s challenging incumbent Delegate Paul Nichols in Prince William County, is now facing a criminal investigation over a campaign mailer that revealed Nichols’ complete Social Security Number to nearly 15,000 district residents:
Prince William County Commonwealth’s Attorney Paul B. Ebert has asked that a special prosecutor investigate claims that a campaign mailer wrongly released the personal information of Del. Paul F. Nichols.
Whatever happens in the investigation, this is clearly not the sort of publicity Anderson wants with only two weeks left in the campaign.
But this story is not over yet. The Manassas News and Messenger has now blasted Anderson for both the release of Nichols’ Social Security Number and the false claims made by Anderson’s mailers:
Even if the Anderson campaign felt it necessary to launch this attack on Nichols, it should have at least had the decency and respect to keep Nichols’ personal information off two mailers that were sent to many homes.
In this day of identity theft, that action reaches a new low. In fact, Nichols was forced to cancel credit cards because of the mailers.
These mailers are just another example of the depths to which politics has fallen, and they cross the line from mean-spirited into harmful.
Rich Anderson owes Paul Nichols an apology.
Unfortunately, an apology will not be forthcoming, as Anderson still “doesn’t feel he has done anything wrong.” Don't expect an apology for Anderson's lack of class either.
2009 Virginia Election Preview
Since 2003, Virginia Democrats have gained 11 seats in the House of Delegates. The 34-66 minority from six years ago has been cut to 45-55 today. To win a majority this year, Democrats must now pick up at least six of our top 14 offensive targets. That kind of gain is always a challenge, but we believe that the state’s changing demographics and the current political landscape offer us an opportunity to win the chamber.
Of the 14 districts that we are contesting, eight of them were won by both President Obama in 2008 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine in 2005. The Virginia House Caucus, led by Democratic Leader Ward Armstrong -- a DLCC board member -- has recruited strong candidates who are running smart campaigns.
A significant cluster of vulnerable Republican districts are located in Northern Virginia, an area which has been trending more Democratic for almost a decade. In addition, Republican incumbents like Delegate Phil Hamilton -- who is under fire for a pay-for-play scandal involving Old Dominion University -- are doing their cause no favors.
Republicans are doing everything they can, however, to target Democratic incumbents, as well. Democratic members currently hold two seats in districts that President Obama lost last year, and a number of GOP challengers are raising serious cash in their races against our incumbents.
Many vulnerable Democratic incumbents are clustered in districts with strong ties to GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell. Activists and traditional-Republican voters from the area are sure to turn out in large numbers on Election Day.
The Republican State Leadership Committee is clearly concerned about their prospects in the state. With two weeks still left to go, the RSLC has committed serious cash in hopes of preserving their majority in Virginia.
In the state, the Democratic House Caucus outraised and outspent their GOP counterparts in the September. Last month, Democrats brought in nearly $2.7 million and spent more than $2.9 million, while the Republicans raised $2 million and spent $2.3 million.
Ultimately, both parties are tightly matched in this contest for control of the House of Delegates. Fundraising for candidates on both sides has been strong. The heated gubernatorial race is drawing attention from voters statewide. We expect that no one will know the outcome of this set of elections until deep into the night on November 3rd.
For more information, be sure to visit the Virginia newsfeed on DLCC.org.
2009 New Jersey Election Preview
We’ve known since June that Republicans were planning a hard charge to retake control of the New Jersey Assembly, but the Democratic Assembly Caucus has met the challenge head-on. With two weeks to go before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats have built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization – advantages that give the party ample reason for optimism this November.
First, Democratic Assembly candidates are enjoying the second straight fundraising period in which they’ve swamped their Republican opponents:
As in past years, Democrats are raising and spending more money than Republicans.
Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million, spending $4 million so far. Meanwhile, Assembly Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million.
This advantage also extends to the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee and Republican Assembly Victory 2009 – the two major-party Assembly campaign organizations. The DACC raised more than twice as much as the Republican caucus in the latest fundraising period, and they ended the period with a 3-1 advantage in cash-on hand.
Even when looking at the Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities across the state, it’s clear that Republican candidates simply aren’t raising the money they need to stay competitive. In district after district, even the most endangered Democratic incumbents enjoy at least a 2-1 fundraising advantage over their challengers – a strong indication that Republicans failed to recruit candidates who have what it takes to win.
Finally, Assembly Republicans have failed to offer solutions on property taxes, one of the biggest political issues in New Jersey. A few weeks ago, a group of Republican candidates held a press conference touting a property tax “plan” that was so bad a sitting Republican Assemblyman said he was “embarrassed for my party if this [is] the best they can do.” A Newark Star-Ledger political columnist examined the plan and declared that the party “should just give up.”
In short, Democrats are running a superior campaign, with better candidates, against a party that’s ignoring one of the top issues in the state. With just two weeks left and with so many factors working against them, it’s tough to see how Republicans can capture the 8 seats they need to tie the Assembly.
For more information, be sure to visit the New Jersey newsfeed on DLCC.org
Grassroots organizations joining the fight for the Virginia House
Virginia’s 2009 House of Delegates elections will decide which party gets to control the next round of redistricting in the state. And with Democrats defending three Virginia congressional seats they picked up in 2008, our fight to win the House of Delegates is gaining national attention.
Most recently, Blue Virginia reports that the national grassroots organization Progressive Kick has jumped in to support five outstanding Democratic candidates:
It's great to see "Progressive Kick" - a self-described "organization of pragmatic progressives, dedicated to construction of a society that values the needs/rights/responsibilities of all of its members" - kicking in to support five excellent Democratic House of Delegates candidates here in Virginia: Robin Abbott (93rd), Margi Vanderhye (34th), Stevens Miller (86th), John Bell (13th), and Peggy Frank (7th).
To help elect the good guys over the...well, the other guys, Progressive Kick has raised $25,000 in matching funds, which means that your donation of $25, $50 or $100, "thanks to Progressive Kick's national network of matching donors, will turn into $50, $100, or even $200 to bring progressive change to Virginia."
Progressive Kick has set up an ActBlue page supporting the effort.
Virginia Republican gets defensive about his mudslinging
Yesterday, we told you about Republican Rich Anderson, who sent a mailer to thousands of voters smearing Delegate Paul Nichols with false accusations. Each piece of mail also included Nichols' complete social security number – putting Nichols at serious risk of identity theft.
Now that Nichols has blasted Anderson for his incompetence and dirty politics, Anderson has stooped to whining that it’s not the campaign’s fault that their own mailer included their opponent’s social security number. (I guess now we know where Anderson stands on ethics and accountability….)
Nichols is also producing evidence against the accusations in the mailer -- that Nichols was involved in a DUI and hit a cop -- but Anderson’s campaign manager is calling Nichols’ evidence “hearsay” and claiming that their sleazy attack still stands.
Now, I haven't been to law school, but I'm pretty sure that eye witness testimony backing up Nichols’ story isn't “hearsay.” I’m also pretty sure that official police reports are not “hearsay” either, and they state unequivocally that (A.) Nichols was not driving, (B.) the car Nichols rode in was never pulled over by police, and (C.) no one was ever charged with a DUI. I’d call that extremely convincing evidence that Anderson’s accusations are a lie.
Most importantly -- The courts dropped all charges against Nichols, and a judge later cleared his name by expunging the record of the arrest.
The only one who may have broken the law is Rich Anderson, for the way he compromised Nichols' Social Security number.
And if legal action is coming, documentation will be easy to find. Evidence of wrong-doing is on every one of the thousands of Anderson campaign mailers sent to voters in the district.
Virginia Delegate Campaign Roundup – 10-13-2009
- HD-10: The NRA Political Victory Fund has endorsed Democratic House Minority Leader (and DLCC Finance Chair) Ward Armstrong, who represents a conservative-leaning district along the North Carolina border. Armstrong accepted the endorsement, noting that “Hunting and sportsmanship is an important part of our lifestyle and heritage in Southwest and Southside Virginia (…)”
- HD-20: Democratic candidate Erik Curren has released a job-creation plan in his race to succeed retiring Republican Chris Saxman. The plan focuses on bringing renewable energy production to the Shenandoah Valley, specifically wind, solar, and hydro-electric power.
- HD-100: The Virginia Association of Realtors has endorsed incumbent Democrat Lynwood Lewis in his re-election bid, providing a welcome boost from a group that endorsed most of the Republican statewide ticket.
- Kaine: Virginia Governor Tim Kaine made a series of campaign appearances with four Democratic delegate candidates in Northern Virginia this week. Delegates Paul Nichols (HD-51) and Chuck Caputo (HD-67), as well as challengers Mark Keam (HD-35) and John Bell (HD-13) each campaigned with Gov. Kaine, who still sports a 71% approval rating in Northern Virginia.
- Senate: in the wake of the well-publicized Hamilton-ODU scandal, local papers in Virginia are turning their attention to other legislators who are on the payroll of universities they’ve requested money for. First up, the Virginian-Pilot looked into 3rd District Republican Senator Tommy Norment, who’s requested nearly $20 million in state funding for the College of William and Mary while pulling down a $160,000 salary from the college – for teaching two courses. Norment defended his actions by noting that he’s been too incompetent to actually get any of the money approved. It’s doubtful this defense will make his constituents feel reassured.








