We’ve known since June that Republicans were planning a hard charge to retake control of the New Jersey Assembly, but the Democratic Assembly Caucus has met the challenge head-on. With two weeks to go before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats have built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization – advantages that give the party ample reason for optimism this November.

First, Democratic Assembly candidates are enjoying the second straight fundraising period in which they’ve swamped their Republican opponents:

As in past years, Democrats are raising and spending more money than Republicans.

Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million, spending $4 million so far. Meanwhile, Assembly Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million.

This advantage also extends to the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee and Republican Assembly Victory 2009 – the two major-party Assembly campaign organizations. The DACC raised more than twice as much as the Republican caucus in the latest fundraising period, and they ended the period with a 3-1 advantage in cash-on hand.

Even when looking at the Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities across the state, it’s clear that Republican candidates simply aren’t raising the money they need to stay competitive. In district after district, even the most endangered Democratic incumbents enjoy at least a 2-1 fundraising advantage over their challengers – a strong indication that Republicans failed to recruit candidates who have what it takes to win.

Finally, Assembly Republicans have failed to offer solutions on property taxes, one of the biggest political issues in New Jersey. A few weeks ago, a group of Republican candidates held a press conference touting a property tax “plan” that was so bad a sitting Republican Assemblyman said he was “embarrassed for my party if this [is] the best they can do.” A Newark Star-Ledger political columnist examined the plan and declared that the party “should just give up.”

In short, Democrats are running a superior campaign, with better candidates, against a party that’s ignoring one of the top issues in the state. With just two weeks left and with so many factors working against them, it’s tough to see how Republicans can capture the 8 seats they need to tie the Assembly.

For more information, be sure to visit the New Jersey newsfeed on DLCC.org

Candidate financial disclosure reports for July and August were filed on Tuesday, and we decided to take a look at a few key races to see how the money race is going:

• HD-13: Democratic challenger John Bell significantly out-raised Republican Delegate Bob Marshall, $85,920 to $53,808. Marshall still holds a slim cash-on-hand advantage of $101,549 to $86,414, but Bell’s consistent fundraising and relentless field program have to have the Marshall campaign nervous.
  
  

• HD-17: Democrat Gwen Mason continued to rack up a huge fundraising advantage against Republican Bill Cleaveland in this Roanoke-based open seat. Mason outraised Cleaveland $76,304 to $27,315 in the period and holds a cash-on-hand lead of $83,141 to $34,632.
  
  

• HD-34: Democratic Delegate Margi Vanderhye has her hands full in her race against former Bush administration official Barbara Comstock. Vanderhye raised $54,788 to Comstock’s $60,422, and she also narrowly trails Comstock in cash-on-hand ($132,578 to $158,215). In addition to her normal Bush connections, Karl Rove has been hosting fundraisers for Comstock’s campaign – which tells us all we need to know about what kind of Delegate she’d make.
  
  

• HD-42: Democratic challenger Greg Werkheiser doubled up on Republican Del. Dave Albo (of abusive driving fee infamy), raising $114,207 in the period to Albo’s $53,726. Werkheiser still faces a cash-on-hand deficit against Albo ($80,156 to $144,813), but Werkheiser should close the distance quickly if he can keep up this pace.
  
  

• HD-93: Republican Delegate Phil Hamilton, who was one of the most powerful Delegates in Richmond before he was engulfed in a pay-for-play scandal, is still raking in campaign cash. Hamilton raised $137,302 in July and August, and has $207,209 cash-on-hand. Democrat Robin Abbott is also running a very strong campaign, raising $68,833 and ending with $108,372 on hand, but she knows she’s got a tough fight against Hamilton’s fundraising machine.

These were just a few of the close races in Virginia this year, and there are many more highly-competitive campaigns in the state. More finance reports are available at the Virginia Board of Elections website.

Overall, Democratic and Republican candidates raised about $2.3 million in July and August, with the Republicans raising slightly more. However, the Democrats’ parity is encouraging, especially since the Republicans are in the majority and have more incumbents raising money.

After their failed coup attempt brought New York’s legislature to a standstill, it’s no surprise that State Senate Republicans aren’t exactly beloved by New York voters. Apparently, their desperate flailing has earned them a rebuke from donors as well, with Democrats out-raising Senate Republicans by nearly 3-1:

While Senate Democrats raised $6.9 million, Republicans raised just $2.5 million. That $4.4 million gap is the second-largest between the two parties since 1999, when the State Board of Elections introduced electronic filing.

The Democrats’ haul was more than twice what they raised during the first half of 2007, the last year without statewide elections. The Republicans’ total was just half of what they raised during the same period in 2007.

The big difference between the parties could hamper Republicans’ plans for retaking control of the Senate next year and underscores how much power is wielded by the dominant party in Albany, even though the Senate Democrats hold a majority of just two votes.

These early numbers are a sharp reversal from previous cycles, when Republicans routinely held a dominant fund-raising edge over then-minority Democrats. Without the millions of dollars that kept them in power for decades in such a left-leaning state, Republicans will have a tough time preventing more Democratic gains – let alone retaking the chamber – in 2010.

In the Ohio House of Representatives, Democrats have opened a massive fundraising lead heading into the 2010 elections:

In the state Legislature, House Republicans celebrated their fundraising figures, with more than $1 million in campaign contributions. The once-dominant GOP now holds 46 of 99 House seats, and hopes to win back the majority it lost in 2006. [sic]

House Democrats amassed more than twice as much during the period, however, raising $2.2 million. And caucus funds and the campaign committees of House leaders combined showed House Democrats raised nearly $3.8 million, compared to $1.4 million for House Republicans.

Congressional districts are drawn exclusively by the Ohio Legislature. Democrats narrowly won the State House in 2008, and by holding that chamber, Democrats can prevent yet another unfair congressional map. It's also, of course, the only way we can be sure that a Democratic policy agenda gets traction in the state.

Additionally, while DLCC doesn’t involve itself in statewide elections, we do keep tabs on races that affect redistricting. Three statewide officials also sit on Ohio’s legislative Apportionment Board, which draws State House and Senate districts, and Democrats have a healthy early fundraising edge in two of those races as well:

• Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland out-raised likely Republican nominee John Kasich $2.5 million to $516,000, leaving Strickland with a nearly 9-1 advantage in cash on hand.

• Republican State Auditor Mary Taylor was out-raised 3-to-1 by Democratic challenger and Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper. Pepper raised nearly $317,000, while Taylor brought in only $107,900.
• In the race for Secretary of State (replacing Democrat Jennifer Brunner), Republican John Husted out-raised Democrat and Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown by roughly $804,000 to $154,000.

If Democrats succeed in holding two of these statewide offices, they can take a majority on the Apportionment Board by successfully holding the State House. Then the Republicans’ gerrymander of state legislative seats can be abolished as well.

As New Jersey’s November 3rd elections rapidly approach, Democrats recently received encouraging news about their prospects of maintaining the 48-32 majority they currently enjoy in the General Assembly.

• The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee possesses a three-to-one fundraising lead over its Republican counterpart, Assembly Republican Victory, according to campaign finance reports released last week. The Democratic committee currently has $989,244 at its disposal compared with just $334,429 for the Republican group.

• Democrats widened the gap with a strong performance in the last fiscal quarter, when they raised nearly $400,000 and the Republicans well under $200,000.

This decisive financial advantage deflates Republican hopes of narrowing or potentially erasing the Democrats’ comfortable majority. With all 80 of the Assembly’s seats up for grabs in November, the monetary disparity will hamper the Republican effort to remove Democrats from office in an array of districts across the state, including those in Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Middlesex, Mercer, Cape May, Atlantic, Cumberland, Camden and Gloucester counties.

Conversely, the Democrats intend to focus primarily on protecting the seats that they already control while supporting qualified challengers. This goal makes these latest financial reports especially promising for Democratic Assemblymen Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam in the state’s hotly contested 1st Legislative District. Both parties plan to pump significant amounts of money into these Cape May County races, where Democrats expect to translate their substantial fundraising advantage into a boost at the polls for both incumbent candidates.

Democrats hope to receive a similar boost in districts throughout the state and see the wide fiscal margin as a promising, albeit still somewhat early, sign of electoral success come November.

Max Selver is a Klindt/Dye Intern for the 2009 Summer Semester.

The Iowa Independent offers up this look at the money race for the state Senate. Things look pretty darn positive:

Democrats already have a 30-to-20 advantage, and in five battleground districts identified earlier this year by The Iowa Independent, Democratic candidates have an overwhelming advantage in cash on hand, with $224,732 compared to $20,071 for the Republicans. Two of those five seats are currently held by retiring Republicans, meaning the Democrats are in good position to expand their majority in the Senate.

Republicans in the state seem to recognize that challenging upper chamber races will demand an uphill battle and are instead focusing on the House.