analysis

By Matt Compton at November 18, 2008 - 6:34pm
Announcements

Some quick DLCCWeb facts

We're beginning to analyze the impact of our DLCCWeb program. We had around 350 campaigns sign up, of which a little more than 300 were active candidates in this election (the rest were caucus organizations or candidates with races in 2009 and 2010 who wanted to get a jump on things).

Some fast facts:

1) We viewed this service as something for all Democratic legislative candidates -- from the challenger with the longest odds to the incumbent without opposition. This year, many of those who took advantage of the program were in fact challengers. Even still, more than half of our candidates won their races.

2) We had active victors in states stretching from Alaska (http://scottforalaska.com/) to Kansas (http://jimwardforkansas.org) to Texas (http://solomonortizjr.com) and plenty of places in between. In many ways DLCCWeb represents the Long Tail of political campaign services.

3) These DLCCWeb candidates put up some serious numbers online. They generated 13,903,917 total hits to their websites, sent out nearly 3 million emails, and raised well over $400,000.

By Matt Compton at November 17, 2008 - 5:17pm
Announcements

Essential Races impact

In 2008, the DLCC tried something new.

For the first time, we published a list of legislative candidates who were running what we believed to be essential races. This was never a list of people who were sure to win -- these were the races that we believed needed national attention.

Our friends and allies did their part. We heard from one supporter, for instance, who sent campaigns a check to pay for postage. Local bloggers promoted these candidates and then the press wrote stories putting these candidates in the spotlight. And of course more a thousand of you offered suggestions about additional campaigns that needed our support.

From the start, we had big hopes for this program. And now, we're happy to report that results on Election Day were very successful.

Thirty of our Essential candidates won their races -- fully 55 percent of our list. Among them were those winning important races in Ohio, New York, Wisconsin, Delaware, and Nevada -- all places where Democrats were able to win new legislative majorities.

We are all to aware that these victories would not have been possible without the support of friends like you. Thank you, once again, for all that you do.

By Matt Compton at November 14, 2008 - 5:18pm
Elections Analysis

DLCC in the news

Our victories on Election Night were the subject of significant media coverage in the wake of the election:

The Associate Press led with the headline, "In state legislatures, Democrats build on majority." Robert Tanner wrote:

"Democrats expanded their one-party control from 23 states to 27 states, while Republicans held steady at 14 states, according to preliminary results. It was the third election cycle in a row that showed benefits for Democrats. "

Stateline.org reported that:

"Democrats emerged from Election Day gaining control over more state governments, and they now dominate both the legislature and governor’s office in 17 states, compared to just eight for Republicans."

Tim Storey and Edward Smith, writing for State Legislatures Magazine, had this to say:

"Democrats took control of four legislatures—Delaware, Nevada, New York and Wisconsin. Those gains helped the Northeast take on a deeper shade of blue, with every chamber north of Virginia in Democratic hands except for the lone splash of Republican red—the Pennsylvania Senate. Based on preliminary, unofficial results, Democrats now control both chambers in 27 states."

By Matt Compton at November 13, 2008 - 4:51pm
Elections Analysis

The Post-Election Landscape

Overview:

The 2008 election showed the strength of our nation's Democratic leaders up and down the ticket. Just as they have done in each of the five previous elections, our state lawmakers made important gains.

Our prior wins significantly increased the number of chambers that we needed to defend, and heading into Election Day, Republicans were telling the press that this might be their year to reverse the Democratic trend and win a slew of legislative victories.

It simply wasn't.

Prior to this election, we held majorities 57 chambers. We now control at least 60. Each of those wins is a testament to the hard work, dedication, and skill of our state Democratic lawmakers all over the country.

Pick-Ups:

In 2008, our political team targeted nine Republican-held chambers as possible pickup opportunities. On Election Day, we won new majorities in five of these chambers: the Delaware House, Ohio House, Wisconsin House, New York Senate, and the Nevada Senate.

Our win in Nevada was particularly hard fought, and observers on the ground believe that support from the DLCC proved to be decisive.

Victories there -- as well as Delaware, New York, and Wisconsin -- are notably significant because they give Democrats complete control of the legislature in these states. The current political landscape represents the smallest number of divided chambers since 1982.

We also made serious gains in two other targeted chambers -- the Montana House and Texas House.

Democrats in Texas picked up four seats, to cut the GOP margin to 76/74. In fact, we came with in 20 votes of winning a fifth race that would have tied the chamber. The new margins present the opportunity for a leadership battle to displace hyperpartisan GOP Speaker Tom Craddick.

In Montana, though one race is still being recounted, Democrats appear to have picked up enough seats to tie the chamber, 50/50. In this event, the Democratic governor will appoint the new Speaker of the House.

Two additional spots of good news: Democrats forced a tie in the Alaska Senate, despite the presence of the Gov. Sarah Palin on the GOP's presidential ticket. Democrats also defeated reelection bids by Republican Speakers in Delaware and Utah.

Defends:

Two years ago, Democrats won 10 new chambers, and during the last presidential election, we had a net gain of 6 chambers. In 2008, we knew that we had to focus on consolidating these past victories and improving Democratic margins in these states.

Prior to Election Day, our political team identified 13 chambers held by Democratic majorities that we needed to protect.

We successfully defended chambers in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Colorado, and we made serious gains in two chambers we originally thought we'd be hard pressed to hold -- the Michigan House and Oregon House.

Setbacks:

Of our 13 targeted chambers, we only lost Democratic majorities in two places: the Tennessee House and Montana Senate. The Montana Senate is among the most competitive in the country and has changed hands in nine of the last 15 elections. Democrats in the state were hampered by a number of term-limit-forced retirements in low-Democratic performance districts.

Republicans also gained control of the upper chambers in Tennessee and the Oklahoma. Both chambers were tied before last week's election.

On Tuesday, voters in Tennessee and Oklahoma came out strongly to support the national GOP ticket, suggesting some coattail effect.

As The New York Times reports, Sen. John McCain's margin of victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the Sooner State was nearly two to one. Oklahoma is the only state in the country where the Democratic presidential candidate failed to win a single county.

Obama's support in Tennessee was stronger, due in large part to the Democratic turnout in urban areas -- he only lost the state by 15 points. But the Republican Party in the state made a point to target Democratic legislative candidates running in rural areas and were clearly able to make gains.

Conclusion:

Across the country, Democrats now control more than 55 percent of the nation's partisan legislative seats. We once again made net gains, adding approximately 100 seats to our column. Democrats now control both the legislature and governor’s office in 17 states. Republicans similarly dominate governments in just eight states.

Our current position is a solid one heading into the final election cycle before the Census and the next round of Congressional and legislative redistricting.

By Matt Compton at November 10, 2008 - 3:57pm
Announcements

What to look for this week

The election might be over, but you should definitely spend some time on DLCC.org in the coming weeks.

We're planning on rolling out several pieces of analysis in the coming days. What to look for?

First, we're breaking down the results of this election nationally. We'll outline our gains and describe the new national landscape.

Second, we're going to look at the results of the DLCCWeb program. We'll pick some of the most successful campaigns and reveal some of their best practices.

Third, we're going to look at the stage for the next election. We'll tell you where we stand as we head into Congressional redistricting.

By Matt Compton at November 3, 2008 - 5:13pm
Elections Analysis

Setting the stage

Overview

Heading into Election Day, Democrats control 27 state senate chambers and 30 state houses chambers. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans control 20 state senate chambers and 19 state house chambers. The state senates in Tennessee and Oklahoma are currently tied, and as always, Nebraska elects a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature.

In 2006 and 2007, the DLCC helped Democrats pick up 12 new legislative majorities. This year, Democrats in many states will be focused on consolidating control of the chambers we currently hold.

That said, experts currently list 11 chambers as pure toss-ups -- seven or which are held by Republicans and only four of which are held by Democrats. We believe November 4th presents an excellent opportunity to continue to expand upon our success.

State by state

Arizona. In Arizona, Republicans have a majority in both chambers, and the GOP has continuously held control over the lower chamber since 1966. Two years ago, Democrats picked up six seats, and now they have an opportunity to make a play for the House of Representatives. And if things continue to trend the right way, Democrats might even be able to gain a majority in the state senate.

California. In California, state law requires that the annual budget be passed by a majority of two-thirds of the lawmakers. Currently, the chamber margins are such that Democrats need the support of eight GOP lawmakers to meet the supermajority required. Earlier this year, the Republican minority in the California Assembly was able to delay the passage of the budget for a record 85 days. That scenario stands to change with this election. Over the course of the last month, Democrats have registered more than 215,000 new voters, negating former GOP registration advantages in a numbers of competitive districts. Democratic leaders in the state are confident that they will be able to make big gains in this year's legislative elections.

Indiana. The contest for the Indiana House is another battle drawing plenty of attention. The Indianapolis Business Journal previews the race this week. Last cycle control of the chamber came down to a single district where the outcome was decided by just eight votes. This year, that district -- Indiana House District 97 -- held by Republican Rep. Jon Elrod is again being contested heavily, as are almost a dozen additional districts. Both parties are relying upon traditional voter outreach to make their cases, but Indiana's position as a national battleground state has led to a huge upswing in voter registration.

Iowa. Democrats hold majorities in both chambers in the Iowa legislature, and this year, much of the political activity is focused on the state house where Republicans are working to retake control. Democrats picked up the chamber two years ago, and currently maintain a six-seat advantage, 53-47. The Quad City Times offers this preview of the election.

Maine. Democrats currently hold a one seat majority in the Maine State Senate -- 18/17. In the House, Democrats currently hold 90 of 151 seats but are working to expand their majority. Though they must defend some open seats, Democratic leaders have courted candidates to run in 149 of 151 House districts. A new preview from the Portland Press Herald describes the electoral landscape for both chambers.

Michigan. In an analysis for Governing Magazine, Alan Greenblatt looks at the race for control of the Michigan House. Two years ago, Democrats won the chamber with a slim three-seat majority, and earlier this year, many expected that the House would be hotly contested. Now that doesn't appear to be the case, and Democrats seem likely to main a majority and perhaps improve on their margins.

Nevada. Both parties are watching the campaign for control of the Nevada Senate unfold. The Associated Press recently wrote a preview of the legislative races in the state. While the senate contests in Clark County get plenty of attention, the AP also makes the point that Democrats might have an opportunity to expand their lead in the lower chamber. Picking up just one additional seat would give our party enough votes to constitute a supermajority and the opportunity to override any veto made by Nevada's Republican governor.

New Hampshire. John DiStaso, a columnist for the New Hampshire Union Leader, offers a comprehensive look at the contest for control of the upper chamber. He says, "At this point, Democrats appear to be in a strong position to maintain their 14-10 majority in the state Senate. They are generally better-funded than the Republicans and, like two years ago, their campaigns are being effectively coordinated by their state party apparatus."

New York. New York is another big state with a closely watched legislative contest. Republicans currently hold a one seat majority in the state senate, and control of the chamber could have a significant impact on Congressional redistricting after the next census. Much of the attention is focused on competitive districts in the western part of the state and on Long Island. A new series of polls from the Siena Research Institute has Democratic candidates ahead in a number of key districts.

Ohio. In Ohio, Democrats are targeting 21 districts in an effort to win control of the state house. Republicans currently hold a seven seat majority (53/46) in the chamber. Democratic fundraising is thus far outstripping expectations, and we have made an effort to ensure that every candidate in each of the targeted district has a campaign staffer to help manage the race. We do face a challenge in protecting a number of incumbents in Republican-leaning districts who need to win before we can cut into GOP margins.

Oklahoma. The Oklahoma state senate is one of two chambers in the country that is currently tied. This year, there are 11 Senate seats up for grabs in the general election, but most expect the final chamber margin to be decided in three key races, one in the Tulsa area, one in the Stillwater area and one in the Lawton area. The Oklahoman offers this preview of the contest.

Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, all 203 state house seats are up for reelection. Democrats currently hold the lower chamber by one vote, 102/101, and the GOP is fighting for control. Two years ago, 24 incumbents were defeated, and this year, many first term legislators are facing tough reelection campaigns. Retirements have opened 20 seats -- 13 of which are held by the GOP and 7 of which are held by Democrats. The Associated Press offers this preview.

Tennessee. In Tennessee, Republicans believe that Democrats will turn out big numbers of supporters in urban and surrounding areas. The GOP is focused entirely on the legislative races and is working to target Democrats running in rural districts. The state senate is currently tied, 16/16.

Texas. As Election Day approaches, Texas is emerging as a vitally important legislative contest. Democrats need only pick up five seats to regain control of the lower chamber for the first time since 2002, when Republicans gained 13 seats with the helped of Tom Delay. According to the public finance reports, Democrats had more campaign cash on hand in 14 of the top 20 House races, and experts believe that there is a significant enthusiasm gap between the two parties. The Houston Chronicle previews the election.

Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Democrats control the state senate while Republicans control the state assembly. Both parties believe that control of the upper chamber will not change, but the lower chamber is up for grabs. The GOP now holds a three seat majority -- 51-47, and all eyes are focused on a number of competitive races in open seats that will determine the final outcome. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel offers this preview.

By Matt Compton at October 30, 2008 - 4:16pm
Elections Analysis

The changing state of Western New York

New York is another big state with a closely watched legislative contest. Republicans currently hold a one seat majority in the state senate, and control of the chamber could have a significant impact on Congressional redistricting after the next census.

Much of the attention is focused on competitive districts in the western part of the state, which is not historically a heated battleground for political races. Last week, the New York Times looked at the contests in the area and discussed the changes that have put the region into play:

The shift in the political terrain has become clear only in recent months, taking both parties by surprise and spurring Republican and Democratic officials to rapidly retool their strategies, particularly in the pivotal campaigns for the State Senate, where Republicans hold a one-seat majority.

The parties have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into a series of Senate races in western New York that could decide control of the chamber for years.

Perhaps no immediate factor has done more to put the region into play than the financial crisis, which has hit Western New York particularly hard. But the area's demographics have changed as well, with the number of Republicans decreasing while the population of Democrats and Independents is on the rise.

Democrats will need to do well here on Election Day if they hope to put win control of the upper chamber for the first time in almost 70 years.

By Matt Compton at October 28, 2008 - 6:17pm
Elections Analysis

Another good national preview

'Tis the season.

Today the Associate Press checks in with its general election preview. The takeaway:

Democrats are cautiously optimistic that enthusiasm and turnout for Barack Obama's presidential campaign will help their candidates far down the ticket. Republicans hope to steer clear of the national mood that has turned against the GOP and focus instead on local issues.

Though state legislative races draw far less attention than contests for the White House, Congress and governor, the party that controls the legislatures has an outsized role nationally — crafting domestic policy, drawing congressional districts and laying the foundation for political stars in the future.

It's funny how times change.

For years, the Republicans ran on a national message, and tried to eek out victories by talking about social issues and playing up people's fears. Then, they started to lose. Now, of course, they're talking about refocusing on local issues.

Meanwhile, Democrats have always been careful to stay attuned to the issues that concern constituents. For the last five years, voters have rewarded us for that kind of dedication and concern.

We're confident that the hard work of our candidates -- along with the enthusiasm held by Democrats everywhere -- will help us achieve victory again this year.

By Matt Compton at October 24, 2008 - 4:32pm
Elections Analysis

Putting an end to the roadblock in California

In California, state law requires that the annual budget be passed by a majority of two-thirds of the lawmakers. Currently, the chamber margins are such that Democrats need the support of eight GOP lawmakers to meet the supermajority required.

Earlier this year, the Republican minority in the California Assembly was able to delay the passage of the budget for a record 85 days.

That scenario stands to change with this election:

Between Sept. 5 and Oct. 15, Democrats registered 215,000 voters, almost twice as many as Republicans, according to county voter registration data. In several Assembly districts held by Republicans, Democrats have nearly closed the gap or even surpassed Republican registration.

Democratic leaders in the state are confident that they will be able to make big gains in this year's legislative elections.

Two of their candidates -- Fran Florez in Assembly District 30 and Manual Perez in Assembly District 80 -- are on the list of the DLCC's 2008 Essential Races.

By Matt Compton at October 22, 2008 - 2:38pm
Elections Analysis

More on Maine

In addition to the analysis of the legislative elections in Maine from Governing last week, I'd like to point you toward a preview published today by the Portland Press Herald:

Democrats, who currently control both the House and Senate, have opened 34 offices around the state, with volunteers and staffers working for candidates from presidential nominee Barack Obama down to legislative hopefuls.

Republicans are taking a more targeted approach, challenging incumbents they believe they can pick off with candidates who have served before in the Legislature. They've also made efforts to get out the vote, encouraging more people to vote absentee and lining up volunteers to get people to the polls.

While last week's preview focused on the very competitive contest for control of the state senate, this piece has the benefit of describing the electoral landscape for both chambers:

On the House side, the GOP has an uphill battle. The Democrats currently hold 90 of 151 seats. The Republicans have 59 seats, and two seats belong to members who are unenrolled in either party. But there are 13 House Democrats stepping down this year due to term limits compared to just two Republicans.

Though they must defend some open seats, Democrats have courted candidates to run in 149 of 151 House districts.

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