The mechanics of reapportionment - who gains and loses?

By Nathan Thomas at April 9, 2010 - 11:38am

The mechanics of reapportionment - who gains and loses?

CBS News recently published an in-depth report on reapportionment following the 2010 Census, including which states might gain, which might lose, and how that will impact political power in America.

Congressional reapportionment and redistricting are closely related, but it’s important to understand their separate impacts. Any state with more than one congressional district can be redistricted to favor one party or another. But in states that gain or lose seats, political control in the state legislatures will be crucial in determining which party the extra districts favor or, in states that lose seats, which party’s congressperson loses his or her district.

According to projections, those states will likely be:

State Possible loss (est.) State Possible gain (est.)
Illinois -1 Arizona +1 or 2
Iowa -1 Florida +1
Louisiana -1 Georgia +1
Massachusetts -1 Nevada +1
Michigan -1 North Carolina 0 or +1
Minnesota 0 or -1 Oregon 0 or +1
New Jersey -1 Texas +3 or 4
New York -1 Utah +1
Ohio -2 Washington +1
Pennsylvania -1

Discounting states that redistrict though non-partisan commissions, Democrats currently hold majorities in many of the states set to gain or lose seats, while many of the Republican-held states in the South may have to create additional majority-minority districts to satisfy the Voting Rights Act.

But CBS also looked at the impact of reapportionment on future Presidential elections, in which the South and West are likely to gain electoral votes while the Northeast and Midwest lose them:

Electoral votes are shifted, too. Unlike the House, where district lines could determine which party gains advantage from a new apportionment, the presidential maps' winner-take-all formulas go directly to the totals. This means new electoral math, and perhaps a revised list of battlegrounds.

Voting differences by region are well-known even to casual political watchers: the Northeast is now solidly Democrat and often liberal (in fact, there are no GOP House members in New England at all) while the deep South and much of the Midwest remain strong Republican territory.

Of course, all such projections depend on an accurate Census count with full participation. We’ve already discussed what a challenge this is. And with participation rates in the Midwest running noticeably ahead of the South, the final congressional allocation could include some surprises.

Thanks for this. Reapportionment and redistricting are so important, but they sneak past many people's radars. I've set up an ActBlue page to get campaign donations to candidates in races that will affect redistricting. I've included the DLCC there. http://www.actblue.com/page/bluedistricts

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