One of the most interesting states for 2010 redistricting will be Louisiana. The state is likely to lose a congressional seat, and Democrats fighting to maintain their state legislative majorities against a strong Republican trend will also have to navigate dramatic population changes caused by Hurricane Katrina.

All this has brought national attention to Louisiana’s redistricting challenge, and the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College is rolling out a district-by-district guide to Louisiana redistricting, starting with an overview of which parties control which levers of power:

Democrats are in clear control of the Senate with 23 seats compared to the Republicans’ 16 seats. The situation in the House is not as clear because Democrats control 52 seats, Republicans control 50, and there are 3 Independents (one of the Independents, Michael Jackson, switched from being a Democrat in 2008). The House leadership is split between the parties. For example, the Speaker of the House and the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee are Republicans while the Speaker Pro Tempore and the Chairman of the Education Committee are Democrats. The close margin in the House and the split partisanship in the leadership could create compromise or could more likely encourage a very partisan situation as both parties fight to get enough votes to pass their plan. Democrats are in a position of power as they control the Senate, but the Republicans will also have a significant say because of the close margins in the House and because the Republican Governor can veto any plan.

The challenge, then, will be for Democrats to produce a redistricting plan that 1. Unifies the House caucus by sufficiently navigating regional and other divisions, 2. Wins the backing of either the Republican Governor or a significant number of Republican legislators, 3. Adheres to Voting Rights Act requirements, and 4. Produces enough Democratic-leaning districts to keep control of the legislature and as many competitive congressional districts as possible. Some (or all) of these requirements already conflict, but the situation is aggravated by Katrina, which decimated the population of New Orleans and some of the gulf-coast parishes while causing rapid growth in Baton Rouge and the New Orleans suburbs.

The Republicans’ challenge is much simpler: create new legislative targets for Republican takeover and make all the state’s congressional districts as inhospitable as possible for Democrats (excepting, of course, a majority African-American district required by the Voting Rights Act). Governor Jindal’s veto will be the key source of leverage for the Republicans, but the state Constitution gives Democrats a key safety valve if Jindal and the Republicans overplay their hand:

(B) Reapportionment by Supreme Court. If the legislature fails to reapportion as required in Paragraph (A), the supreme court, upon petition of any elector, shall reapportion the representation in each house as provided in Paragraph (A).

Louisiana Supreme Court justices are chosen by partisan elections, and Democrats currently hold 4 of the 7 seats (including the Chief Justice).

The Rose Institute's second installment, focusing on New Orleans-area congressional districts, is also now available.