We’ve known since June that Republicans were planning a hard charge to retake control of the New Jersey Assembly, but the Democratic Assembly Caucus has met the challenge head-on. With two weeks to go before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats have built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization – advantages that give the party ample reason for optimism this November.

First, Democratic Assembly candidates are enjoying the second straight fundraising period in which they’ve swamped their Republican opponents:

As in past years, Democrats are raising and spending more money than Republicans.

Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million, spending $4 million so far. Meanwhile, Assembly Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million.

This advantage also extends to the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee and Republican Assembly Victory 2009 – the two major-party Assembly campaign organizations. The DACC raised more than twice as much as the Republican caucus in the latest fundraising period, and they ended the period with a 3-1 advantage in cash-on hand.

Even when looking at the Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities across the state, it’s clear that Republican candidates simply aren’t raising the money they need to stay competitive. In district after district, even the most endangered Democratic incumbents enjoy at least a 2-1 fundraising advantage over their challengers – a strong indication that Republicans failed to recruit candidates who have what it takes to win.

Finally, Assembly Republicans have failed to offer solutions on property taxes, one of the biggest political issues in New Jersey. A few weeks ago, a group of Republican candidates held a press conference touting a property tax “plan” that was so bad a sitting Republican Assemblyman said he was “embarrassed for my party if this [is] the best they can do.” A Newark Star-Ledger political columnist examined the plan and declared that the party “should just give up.”

In short, Democrats are running a superior campaign, with better candidates, against a party that’s ignoring one of the top issues in the state. With just two weeks left and with so many factors working against them, it’s tough to see how Republicans can capture the 8 seats they need to tie the Assembly.

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