The most-watched legislative special election of 2009 might be in Michigan’s 19th Senate District, centered in Jackson and Calhoun Counties. We’ve mentioned our interest in the race from time to time, and there are many good reasons why this race has taken on such prominence in a year with dozens of state House and Senate special elections:

• The Stakes: With 30 open seats and only 4 incumbent Republicans running in 2010, there might never be a better opportunity to win a Senate majority and guarantee control over 2011 redistricting. If Democrats hold SD-19, we only need 4 more seats to accomplish this. If Republicans win it, they earn some extra breathing room for 2010.
  
  

• The Candidates: The leading Democratic and Republican candidates are well-respected State Representatives (one currently serving, the other forced out by term limits last year) who both represented districts inhospitable to their respective parties. Few special elections this year have featured this much talent on both sides.
  
  

• The Timeline: District 19 has been vacant since Mark Schauer won his US House seat, but the special general election won’t be held until this November 3rd. By then, the parties and candidates will have had nearly a year to campaign and fundraise.
  
  

• The District: Obama won this district by about 7% - similar to his national margin but also significantly under-performing his statewide margin of 16%. That makes this one of the truest “swing districts” to come up for special election this year.

This combination of high stakes, prominent candidates, months of hard campaigning, and an expected close finish make this Michigan special election one to watch. On that last point, the geographical features of the district, we highly recommend a newly-posted introduction to SD-19 over at SwingStateProject – complete with interactive maps, election histories, and anything else you’d want to know about the 19th Senate District.

We feel very good about our chances in this race, and we know state and local Democrats in Michigan are leaving nothing to chance. They’re working hard to win this election and put themselves in the best possible position to win back the Senate in time for 2011 redistricting.