New York Senate Democrats post big leads heading into 2010

By Nathan Thomas at May 28, 2009 - 2:14pm
Elections Analysis

New York Senate Democrats post big leads heading into 2010

A series of independent polls this month have shown Democrats with wide, double-digit leads on the generic ballot question of which party New Yorkers want to control the State Senate.

The latest numbers come from Siena College, which shows State Senate Democrats strongly favored (PDF) among New York registered voters, 57%-31%.
(May 18-21; N=622; MOE=3.9%)

These results largely confirm a Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, which gave the Democrats a 21-point lead on the question, 56%-35%, among registered voters.
(May 5-11; N=2828; MOE=1.8%)

Wading into the cross-tabs of the Quinnipiac poll, (which I feel comfortable doing because of the large sample size) we see that Democrats led the generic ballot in every region of the state, including traditional Republican strongholds in rural areas upstate.

12. Democrats took control of the state senate this year for the first time in decades. Would you like to see them continue control in 2010?

.......UpState Urban...UpState Other...UpState Total...NYC......Suburbs

Yes...........52%...............47%...............48%........71%........47%
No............35%...............41%...............40%........21%........45%
DK/NA.......13%...............12%...............12%..........7%.........7%

Ultimately, the only poll that matters is the 2010 elections, but these results indicate that despite the state’s tough budget choices in response to the recession, New Yorkers appreciate the important progress Democrats are making on key issues like improving transparency, shutting down the Senate Republicans’ taxpayer-funded political machine, and securing New York’s fair share of federal tax dollars. There’s a lot of work to do before 2010, but polling like this puts Democrats in an enviable position as we approach the campaigns.

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