CQ WEEKLY - IN FOCUS
March 14, 2006

By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

It might seem that the attention political insiders already are paying to the 2008 presidential race is a little obsessive. But there are campaign units in each of the major national parties, focused on state legislative contests, that are looking even further ahead — to 2011.

That is the year that the next full round of congressional redistricting will begin, using the population numbers from the 2010 census.

Of the 50 states, 46 will be holding elections this November for either their state House, state Senate or both. And of those 46 states, 39 have more than one congressional district — meaning the lines will have to be redrawn early next decade to adjust to population changes.

So what does this have to do with the election campaigns of 2006?

Here’s what is at stake: Most of the state legislative seats up for election this year will be again in 2010. And since the incumbent party usually has a big advantage in holding a seat, the party that wins control of a state legislature this year may be in a good position to hold it in 2010 — and then dominate the congressional redistricting process that will ensue over the following two years.

To be sure, there are near-term reasons why the national parties are in hot competition in this year’s state legislative battles. Winning control of a legislature enables a party to set the state’s legislative and political agenda, and helps percolate the party’s national themes down to the state and local levels. Legislatures also are popular proving grounds for rising stars who someday will run for higher offices.

Still, the heads of both the Republican and Democratic state legislative campaign wings say next-decade redistricting is very much on their minds.

“We look at it as if the 2011 redistricting is starting right now... we cannot take this election cycle off,” said Michael Davies, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

“We are looking for places to win but also places we can put ourselves if not this time then in 2008 and 2010,” said Alex Johnson, executive director of the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee, who added that redistricting is a “tremendous factor in planning our schedule.”

The cumulative numbers illustrate just how competitive this battle is: There are currently 7,382 seats in the country’s state legislatures, and less than one half of 1 percentage point separates the number of Democratic-held and Republican-held seats, according to Tim Storey, senior fellow at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

“It’s emblematic of what has been occurring for the last 20 years in that competition between the parties has become more and more keen in races and in legislatures and in other elected bodies that at one time would have been unheard of,” said Connie Campanella, president and CEO of the government relations firm Stateside Associates.

Outlook for 2006

Predictably, both parties are focusing most of their energies this year on state legislative chambers that currently are closely divided between the parties.

Davies and Johnson identified the same six states that are at or near the top of their priority lists.

They include Colorado, where Democrats in 2004 won narrow majorities in both the House and Senate; Maine, where Democrats maintain close leads in both chambers; Washington, where Democrats grabbed complete control in 2004 by taking a slim Senate lead from the Republicans; Tennessee, where the Republicans earned a split by gaining a one-seat Senate majority two years ago; and Oklahoma, where surging Republicans hope to match their state House control by taking over the state Senate.

Also on their lists are Iowa, where the Senate is tied and Republicans have a 51-49 state House edge, and Montana, where a strong Democratic year in 2004 gave the party slim control of the state Senate and an even split in the state House.

There are direct redistricting implications in the first four of those states, which have multiple congressional districts and which give their legislatures primary responsibility for drawing the maps. The legislature’s role is minimized, though, in Iowa, which delegates redistricting to a nonpartisan state agency in an effort to depoliticize the process. Montana, the nation’s seventh least populous state, has just one U.S. House seat and, thus, no congressional redistricting.

Other closely divided legislative bodies that are on the party strategists’ radar screen are both chambers in Republican-controlled Michigan and Democratic-controlled North Carolina; Nevada, Minnesota and Oregon, each of which have one chamber controlled by the Republicans and the other by the Democrats; and the Indiana House and New York Senate, both now under Republican control. All of these contests have future congressional redistricting implications.

Democrats argue that they have momentum this year after making gains in the state legislative elections of 2004. “The Democratic wins at the state legislature level were one of biggest untold stories of the 2004 elections,” said Davies.

In 2004, six chambers switched from Republican to Democratic control, one from Republican to a tie and one from a tie to Democratic control. Republicans picked up control of four chambers that had been held by Democrats.

But Storey notes that the Democrats face a tough enough task just holding on to the advances they made two years ago. “It was one of the rare bright spots for Democrats in 2004,” Storey said. “The problem is when you win those chambers that just means it’s more you have to defend.”

With President Bush experiencing low approval numbers, Republicans could feel the effects at the local level. History shows that public sentiment on the national level can affect state race outcomes.

In 1994, the congressional Democratic majority was entangled in corruption scandals and perceived by most voters as ineffective in carry out the nation’s business. The Republicans staged their “Contract With America” revolution that gained them control of Congress. And there was a major ripple effect: Davies said that same year, Democrats lost more than 500 seats at the state level.

Johnson concedes that declining national support for the GOP gives his party an added obstacle this year, citing as an example Democrat Tim Kaine’s hard-fought 2005 victory for governor of Virginia, a state that usually leans Republican. But Johnson also said that Kaine’s win was an object lesson to which Republicans will be able to adjust by this November.

“We’ve learned a great deal from what happened in Virginia. The president wasn’t very popular at election time in 2005 and the intensity was on the Democrats’ side,” said Johnson. “That continues to be the case right now. But time is on our side — time to change that.”

Source: CQ Weekly
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