Looking at 2010

By Matt Compton at February 24, 2009 - 4:14pm
Elections Analysis

Looking at 2010

The stakes could not be higher for the coming election cycle, and the DLCC has already begun working to ensure that Democrats will win these crucial legislative races.

As part of that effort, we want to keep our supporters informed about where we stand heading into 2009-2010.

Where we are

In 2008, the DLCC successfully defended chambers in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Colorado, and we made serious additional gains in two chambers we originally thought we'd be hard pressed to hold -- the Michigan House and Oregon House.

Of our 13 targeted chambers, we only lost Democratic majorities in two places: the Tennessee House and Montana Senate.

Our political team targeted nine Republican-held chambers as possible pickup opportunities.

On Election Day, we won new majorities in five of them: the Delaware House, Ohio House, Wisconsin Assembly, New York Senate, and the Nevada Senate. We made strong gains in the Texas House and forced a tie in the Montana House.

Across the country, Democrats now hold more than 55 percent of the nation's partisan legislative seats. We once again made net gains, adding approximately 100 seats to our column. We control 61 of the nation's 98 partisan legislative chambers. And Democratic leaders are at the helm of both the legislature and governor’s office in 17 states, while Republicans hold equivalent control of governments in just eight states.

The stakes for the future

As we head into this next election cycle,the stakes could not be higher. Our wins over the past six years have significantly increased the number of chambers that we needed to defend and narrowed the field of potential pickup opportunities.

Traditionally, the party that controls the White House has fared poorly in the first midterm election after the new president takes office. In terms of state legislative races in these cycles, the party of presidential power made gains only twice in the 20th century -- when voters supported FDR and Democrats during the Great Depression and when voters turned out for George W. Bush and Republicans in the first election after September 11th.

But it is crucial, both for the future of our party and our country that Democrats do well in 2009 and 2010, as this cycle represents final set of elections before the next round of legislative redistricting.

When the 2010 Census is completed, legislatures in 36 states will meet to draw the lines for 383 of the nation's 435 Congressional districts.

In the 2000 Election, Republicans gained control of a majority of the nation’s legislative chambers. They completely dominated all three branches of government in states that we all recognize as competitive: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

In 2002, the first election after the 2000 redistricting, 17 Congressional seats changed hands – 15 of these 17 shifted largely due to legislatively-drawn map changes.

Because Republicans controlled a majority of the nation’s state houses, the GOP was able to improve its margins in the U.S. House of Representatives, gain control of five state legislative chambers, and finish the year with more Republican state legislators than Democrats nationwide for the first time since the 1950s.

This outcome of this election cycle will have long term ramifications.

Outlook 2009

The cycle begins with one set of targeted races in 2009.

In the Virginia House of Delegates, Republicans hold a 53/45 majority.

Two years ago, the DLCC worked with Democrats in the state to win a majority in the Senate for the first time in a decade. That same night, we added four seats to our margins in the lower chamber. In February of 2008, we picked up another seat in the House in a special election.

There are at least six seats currently held by Republicans in districts that Obama won which will be on our target list in the fall.

Despite our recent success, Republicans are confident that they will be able to retain control of the chamber. This is guaranteed to be a tightly contested series of elections, and national observers will watch the outcome closely as a barometer of things to come.

Outlook 2010

In 2010, 46 states will hold legislative elections. Nationwide, 1155 Senate seats and 4598 House seats will be up for grabs.

Because we control 60 of the 98 chambers, we recognize that we have a lot of territory to protect.

We do, however, have a limited number of opportunities for additional pickups.

At this stage, our list of targeted chambers includes the Kentucky Senate, Michigan Senate, Missouri House, Pennsylvania Senate, and Texas Senate.

We are particularly committed to picking up the Texas House, where Democrats have made tremendous strides over the last few cycles and are only down one seat.

We will also be looking at taking back the Tennessee House, Oklahoma Senate, and Montana Senate, as well as breaking the ties in the Montana House and the Alaska Senate.

Conclusion

Barring a “sea-change” election like we saw in 2006 -– after nearly a decade of Republican scandals -– the maps created after 2010 will dictate political realities for the next decade.

To ensure that our leaders are able to promote a Democratic agenda at every level of government, we must not lose ground in this election cycle.

The DLCC is dedicated to this goal, but we will rely on support from allies like you to be successful over the course of the next two years.

Your contributions help us build state-of-the-art campaign organizations, field talented candidates, and equip Democrats in competitive races with the tools they need to win.

Please contact us if you are interested in doing more to support our mission.

I'm thrilled that you guys are activating this far out. I would note that crucial to redistricting will be not just gaining, but holding what we have. We don't want to lose ground in states like Wisconsin (where we have the governor's mansion and legislature, controlling redistricting), Colorado (ditto), New York (ditto), Ohio (governor's mansion and House), Pennsylvania (ditto), Louisiana (legislature), Indiana (House), or Nevada (legislature).

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

To combat spam, please enter the code in the image.