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October 2008
The changing state of Western New York
New York is another big state with a closely watched legislative contest. Republicans currently hold a one seat majority in the state senate, and control of the chamber could have a significant impact on Congressional redistricting after the next census.
Much of the attention is focused on competitive districts in the western part of the state, which is not historically a heated battleground for political races. Last week, the New York Times looked at the contests in the area and discussed the changes that have put the region into play:
The shift in the political terrain has become clear only in recent months, taking both parties by surprise and spurring Republican and Democratic officials to rapidly retool their strategies, particularly in the pivotal campaigns for the State Senate, where Republicans hold a one-seat majority.
The parties have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into a series of Senate races in western New York that could decide control of the chamber for years.
Perhaps no immediate factor has done more to put the region into play than the financial crisis, which has hit Western New York particularly hard. But the area's demographics have changed as well, with the number of Republicans decreasing while the population of Democrats and Independents is on the rise.
Democrats will need to do well here on Election Day if they hope to put win control of the upper chamber for the first time in almost 70 years.
GOP gets desperate in Texas
Things are starting to heat up in Texas
Democrats need only win five seats to regain control of the lower chamber for the first time since 2002, when Republicans gained 13 seats with the helped of Tom Delay.
According to the public finance reports, Democrats have more campaign cash on hand in 14 of the top 20 House races, and experts believe that there is a significant enthusiasm gap between the two parties.
Thinking of all that, it should come as no surprise that the GOP is starting to get desperate.
Vince Leibowitz, a blogger at Capitol Annex, has set up a map to track all the legislative districts into which big time GOP donors and political action committees affiliated with Republican Speaker Tom Craddick are pouring cash. These guys are investing thousands and thousands of dollars to these protect seats.
Tim Kleinschmidt, a Republican candidate for House District 17, has received more than $30,000 from these characters. But he's still really be worried.
Back in August, Rachel Farris -- another local blogger -- volunteered to canvas for Kleinschmidt's Democratic opponent, Donnie Dippel. Afterward they posed in front of her car, which has an "OBAMA" license plate. Kleinschmidt ripped that copyrighted image off of Rachel's website, cropped her out of the picture, and created a mail piece to attack Dippel.
If that's the best the Republicans have, I feel pretty good about our chances on Election Day.
Another good national preview
'Tis the season.
Today the Associate Press checks in with its general election preview. The takeaway:
Democrats are cautiously optimistic that enthusiasm and turnout for Barack Obama's presidential campaign will help their candidates far down the ticket. Republicans hope to steer clear of the national mood that has turned against the GOP and focus instead on local issues.
Though state legislative races draw far less attention than contests for the White House, Congress and governor, the party that controls the legislatures has an outsized role nationally — crafting domestic policy, drawing congressional districts and laying the foundation for political stars in the future.
It's funny how times change.
For years, the Republicans ran on a national message, and tried to eek out victories by talking about social issues and playing up people's fears. Then, they started to lose. Now, of course, they're talking about refocusing on local issues.
Meanwhile, Democrats have always been careful to stay attuned to the issues that concern constituents. For the last five years, voters have rewarded us for that kind of dedication and concern.
We're confident that the hard work of our candidates -- along with the enthusiasm held by Democrats everywhere -- will help us achieve victory again this year.
The Republican Plan for November 4th
I want to make sure you saw this article that ran in the New York Times over the weekend: "G.O.P. Senses Opportunities in Statehouse Races."
The Republicans recognize that they have little hope for victory in many federal races, and they have now trained their sites on down ballot contests.
With just a week left before this election, the GOP has begun to pour unprecedented spending into state legislative targets.
Important states like Iowa, Maine, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Indiana, Nevada, and Ohio, are under attack.
If the GOP makes big gains this year, then they will have a significant advantage as we head into the 2010 election and the next round of redistricting.
If the GOP can control the redistricting process, they can redraw legislative lines to negate our victories in Congress and ensure that Republicans hold power in Washington once again.
We cannot let this happen.
The DLCC needs your help to protect our legislative majorities. Will you pledge to give $5 a day for the last week of this election to ensure that our Democratic lawmakers win on November 4th?
Putting an end to the roadblock in California
In California, state law requires that the annual budget be passed by a majority of two-thirds of the lawmakers. Currently, the chamber margins are such that Democrats need the support of eight GOP lawmakers to meet the supermajority required.
Earlier this year, the Republican minority in the California Assembly was able to delay the passage of the budget for a record 85 days.
That scenario stands to change with this election:
Between Sept. 5 and Oct. 15, Democrats registered 215,000 voters, almost twice as many as Republicans, according to county voter registration data. In several Assembly districts held by Republicans, Democrats have nearly closed the gap or even surpassed Republican registration.
Democratic leaders in the state are confident that they will be able to make big gains in this year's legislative elections.
Two of their candidates -- Fran Florez in Assembly District 30 and Manual Perez in Assembly District 80 -- are on the list of the DLCC's 2008 Essential Races.
Another reason to vote for Democratic legislators
If you're reading newspapers in the march up to the Election, you've probably noticed the flood of reports about record turnout at early voting sites.
All total, there are 31 states that allow voters to cast their ballots before Election Day, and at this point, the process has begun in nearly all of them. Perhaps as much as a one-third of the electorate will voter early -- double the rate from 2000 and up more than 10 percent from 2004.
And, according to NBC News, in my places, that turnout is benefiting Democrats:
Through Monday in Las Vegas, for example, early ballots were cast by 31,875 registered Democrats and 13,371 registered Republicans, the Clark County registrar said, while in Ohio, Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 2-to-1 on Monday. Democratic advantages were also reported in Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and New Mexico.
Experts expect that turnout will be especially heavy in Florida, where up to 40 percent of the electorate might try to cast their votes.
That enthusiasm might turn out to be a disaster, and with only one group to blame for the trouble -- Republicans in the legislature:
Saying early voting cost too much money with rules that weren't uniform, Republican legislators led a charge three years ago to set new statewide standards limiting the number of polling sites and their hours of operation.
Those revamped rules trimmed early voting from 12 hours per workday to eight.
You read that correctly.
GOP lawmakers actually changed laws in the state to make it harder for citizens to vote, and they did it because it might create a political advantage for their party.
When we talk about new Democratic majorities changing conversations, this is exactly the kind of thing I point to. Yes, Democrats work to promote quality education and improve health care. Yes, Democrats are investing in new kinds of energy and creating new jobs. But we are also in the business of voter protection. We work to erase barriers to the ballot box.
Republicans don't.
More on Maine
In addition to the analysis of the legislative elections in Maine from Governing last week, I'd like to point you toward a preview published today by the Portland Press Herald:
Democrats, who currently control both the House and Senate, have opened 34 offices around the state, with volunteers and staffers working for candidates from presidential nominee Barack Obama down to legislative hopefuls.
Republicans are taking a more targeted approach, challenging incumbents they believe they can pick off with candidates who have served before in the Legislature. They've also made efforts to get out the vote, encouraging more people to vote absentee and lining up volunteers to get people to the polls.
While last week's preview focused on the very competitive contest for control of the state senate, this piece has the benefit of describing the electoral landscape for both chambers:
On the House side, the GOP has an uphill battle. The Democrats currently hold 90 of 151 seats. The Republicans have 59 seats, and two seats belong to members who are unenrolled in either party. But there are 13 House Democrats stepping down this year due to term limits compared to just two Republicans.
Though they must defend some open seats, Democrats have courted candidates to run in 149 of 151 House districts.
Building a majority in Ohio
In Ohio, Democrats are targeting 21 districts in an effort to win control of the state house. Republicans currently hold a seven seat majority (53/46) in the chamber.
Obviously, we're not trying to pick up 21 seats -- we first have to protect a number of incumbents in Republican-leaning districts before we can cut into GOP margins.
So what's the game plan?
According to Scarlett Bouder, communications director for the House Democratic campaign, it's a lot of things:
"There's no silver bullet. It's a combination of many factors, including polling, the governor's past performance, as well as the [Democratic performance index]."
Democratic fundraising is thus far outstripping expectations, which has led an important breakthrough -- Democrats have made an effort to ensure that every candidate in each of the targeted districts has a campaign staffer to help manage the race.
And that is terrific news -- dedicated, professional staff help candidates run more effective campaigns.
Another look at Indiana
The contest for the Indiana House is another battle drawing plenty of attention. Last week, The Indianapolis Business Journal wrote its preview of the race:
The stakes are high. Republicans are expected to maintain their firm hold on the Indiana Senate, where they enjoy a 33-to-17 majority. But Democrats control the Indiana House by a slim 51-to-49 margin.
If they retain control and incumbent Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels wins re-election, House Democrats will be a major roadblock to his legislative agenda, much of which has strong support in the business community. If Republicans retake the House, his plans would have a clearer path.
Last cycle, control of the chamber came down to a single district where the outcome was decided by just eight votes.
This year, that district -- Indiana House District 97 -- held by Republican Rep. Jon Elrod, is again being contested heavily, as are almost a dozen additional seats.
Both parties are relying upon traditional voter outreach to make their cases, but Indiana's position as a national battleground state has led to a huge upswing in voter registration.
The complete picture for Nevada
Both parties are watching the campaign for control of the Nevada Senate unfold, and this week, the Associated Press wrote a preview of all the legislative races in the state.
We've spent plenty of time discussing the senate contests in Clark County, and the AP has plenty to say about those races.
But they also make the point that Democrats also have the opportunity to expand their lead in the lower chamber.
Assembly Democrats, who already have a 27-15 edge over Republicans, are looking to pick up from one to three more seats. Gaining just one seat would give Democrats the 28 seats needed for a supermajority - the number needed to override a veto by Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons. They say their worst-case scenario is retaining their current, overwhelming margin.
In addition to setting a Democratic agenda for the state, control of both chambers will be important as we enter the next round of legislative redistricting. Most project that Nevada will add at least one seat in Congress after the Census.
Campaign in Maine
The guys from Ballot Box checked in this week with another good preview.
Maine isn't generally a battleground we talk about much. That's at least in part because it's in New England, where campaigns have been trending against Republicans for awhile.
But Democrats only control the chamber by one seat, 18/17. And the GOP is looking to challenge us for control:
Republicans are hoping that by focusing on taxes they can get the one seat they need.
The levy Republicans are focusing on most isn't a sales tax or a property tax or an income tax: It's a beverage tax. Due to a shortfall in funding for Dirigo, Maine's landmark law to expand access to health insurance, in March the legislature approved the tax on beer, wine and soft drinks. In the Senate, the vote was along party lines (Democrats in favor, Republicans opposed), although some Democratic candidates have voiced opposition to the idea.
Democrats in the state remain confident about their chances to hold the majority, however, because of the efforts they've already made:
Arden Manning, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party, says that his party's coordinated campaign has already made 1.25 million phone calls. Maine only has 1.3 million residents.
It's hard to overstate the importance of that kind of voter contact.
State Legislature Projections
Lou Jacobson writes a regular column for Stateline focused on political trends. Today, with less than three weeks of campaigning before Election Day, he handicaps the races for state legislature. His projections offer some good news for Democrats:
The nation’s worsening economic picture and Democrat Barack Obama’s widening lead in the presidential race appear to be boosting the prospects for Democrats to expand their lead in the state legislatures.
Jacobson lists 11 chambers as pure toss-ups -- seven or which are held by Republicans and only four of which are held by Democrats. He says:
Using a middle-of-the road scenario, if the parties were to split the Toss-Up chambers on Nov. 4 and hold onto those “leaning” their way, the Democrats stand to net a gain of perhaps one from among the 25 chambers. Even that would not be an insignificant achievement, considering how hard it is to follow up on their big gains in 2004 and 2006 when they netted six and then eight legislative chambers. Plus, the single biggest prize of the year could be the New York Senate, growingly within reach for Democrats.
Most of the movement in his outlook have been towards Democrats. In a way, that is remarkable.
It is undoubtedly true that the national climate does favor our party. But Legislative Democrats made so many gains in 2004 and 2006, that we already control most of the chambers in the most favorable environments.
It is a testament to the strength and hard work of our candidates that we have as many opportunities as we do.
The Races You Chose
Last month, we asked for your help in finding 10 additional candidates to support this cycle. Nearly 2,000 of you wrote in to offer up the names of strong Democratic legislative candidates who need national attention.
We were overwhelmed by the response, and we couldn't stop with just 10. Below you'll find profiles of 15 legislative candidates who we are adding to our list of Essential Races.
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Daniel Bliss -- Illinois House District 17
Daniel Bliss is an educator from Chicago, Illinois. He currently works as a professor of mathematics at the University of Chicago and volunteers as a math teacher at North Lawndale College Preparatory High School, in Chicago's west side. He serves on the steering committee of Our Climate Matters (a global warming project sponsored by the League of Women Voters of Wilmette), the Board of Directors of the Democratic Party of Evanston, the Social Action Committee of Temple Beth Israel, the Voice and Action Committee of the Young Professionals of Evanston, and the Advisory Board of the Chicago branch of Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century.
Trish O'Neil -- Wisconsin Assembly District 47
Trish O'Neil currently serves her community as the president of the Columbus School District Board of Education in Columbus, Wisconsin. For 19 years, she worked as a registered nurse, including hospital staff nursing, home health, clinic nursing and management, outpatient settings and diabetic education. She is currently the co-owner and manager, with her husband, of a private family practice clinic. She previously served as the director of the Elder Peer Support program in Columbus. She is an active member of the American Diabetes Association, the Wisconsin Public Radio 9XM Leadership Circle, the League of Women Voters, the Wisconsin Nurses Association, and other civic organizations.
Ty Harrell -- North Carolina House District 41
Ty Harrell was elected to the North Carolina House of Representatives two years ago and is currently seeking reelection. He currently serves on the Committees for Appropriations; Health; Transportation; Commerce, Small Business, & Entrepreneurship; Children, Youth, & Families; and Science & Technology. In the legislature, he is a leader on improving education, creating jobs, and expanding health care coverage. Earlier this year, the North Carolina Center for Public Policy Research named Harrell the most effective freshman legislator in the state.
Sherrie Matula -- Texas House District 129
Sherrie Matula is an educator and community activist from Houston, Texas. In 2006, she ran a very strong campaign for the same seat that she is trying to win now. She currently works as a science education consultant for schools in Houston, El Paso and the Temple Independent School District. She previously served as president of the Galveston County Education District and on the board of the Texas State Teachers Association. She was a teacher in the Clear Creek and Pasadena Independent School Districts for 25 years.
Steve Rovner -- Pennsylvania House District 178
Steve Rovner is an attorney and litigator from Holland, Pennsylvania. He works at the law firm his father founded more than thirty-five years ago, where he advocates for clients primarily against insurance companies that improperly fail to pay health and liability benefits. As a community activist, he has worked with his neighbors to successfully defeat more than $20 million from being spent by a local township on unnecessary construction projects. He is a member of the Northampton Historical Society, the Bucks County Historical Society, the Churchville Nature Center, and the Northampton Business and Professional Association.
Sam Murphey -- Texas House District 55
Sam Murphey is a former paratrooper and Army Ranger from Harker Heights, Texas. He left the military in 1989 as a lieutenant colonel, having served in the United States, Europe, Korea, and Vietnam. Before deciding to seek public office, he was the district director for U.S. Representative Chet Edwards. From 1991 to 1996, he worked as a military and veterans liaison for Congressman Edwards. He is currently the vice chair of the board of directors for the Heart O' Texas Federal Credit Union and the co-founder of the Harker Heights Economic Development Corporation.
Penny Bernard Schaber -- Wisconsin Assembly District 57
Penny Bernard Schaber is a community activist from Appleton, Wisconsin. In 2006, she ran very strong campaign for her state assembly district -- winning more than 46 percent of the vote and nearly defeating a 10-year Republican incumbent. She is a member of the Fox Valley Sierra Group and serves as chair of Wisconsin’s John Muir Chapter of the Sierra Club. She previously worked as a physical therapist at hospitals, in private practice, nursing homes, and schools in the Appleton community.
Judy Hirsh -- Pennsylvania Senate District 15
Judy Hirsh has been a community leader in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where she owns and operates her own business. She currently serves as president of the Londonderry School, where she led a $2.5 million effort to expand and develop the school's facilities and programs, including the construction of the community's first "green," environmentally-sustainable education center. She has a seat on the board of the Harrisburg Humane Society and is involved with various civic organizations.
Terry Hertle -- Iowa House District 39
Terry Hertle is a farmer from Newhall, Iowa. He is an active member of the Farm Bureau, National Farmer’s Union and Benton County Pork Producers, and he currently represents his town on the Benton County Community Foundation. He is a past member of the Benton County Cattlemen, Benton County Soybean Association, Iowa Corn Growers and Lions Club and previously served on the WMT Radio Farm Panel and was on the Pioneer Seed Corn Advisory Board.
Lou Anne Weix -- Wisconsin Assembly District 90
Lou Anne Weix is health care professional from Howard, Wisconsin. For 30 years, she has worked as a Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist and in 2007, she was appointed by Governor Jim Doyle to the Wisconsin Board of Nursing, a nomination that was unanimously confirmed by the Senate. She has been deeply involved with the Wisconsin Association of Nurse Anesthetists, where she has served as state president, government relations chair, and public relations chair. In one important instance, she worked with fellow nurses and key Wisconsin legislators to forge legislation that allowed nurse anesthetists, clinical nurse specialists, nurse midwives and nurse practitioners to prescribe medications within their scope of practice.
Linda Newell -- Colorado Senate District 26
Linda Newell is a business consultant from Littleton, Colorado. She is an expert in human resources and corporate education and has worked as a facilitator for dislocated workers who were laid off and employees new to the workforce. She is an active member of the American Red Cross, the Special Olympics, and the March of Dimes, and has served as the education foundation chair for a chapter of the American Association of University Women. She also served on the Denver Metro Regional Workforce Development Council and participated on the Governor’s Taskforce on Workforce Development.
Bud Martin -- New Hampshire House District 3
Bud Martin is a retired judge and small business owner from Sandwich, New Hampshire. He has served as a family division judge and a member of the district court. He was previously a member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives. He is a member of the Salvation Army Board and has been actively involved with numerous other civic organizations. He is running for the legislature to improve public education, promote energy conservation, and strengthen local businesses.
Nate Cote -- New Mexico House District 53
Nate Cote was elected to the New Mexico House of Representatives two years ago and is currently seeking reelection. In 2006, he defeated the Republican Minority Whip to win his district. He is currently a senior adjunct professor with Park University and works full time as the academic director for Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Holloman Campus. For four years, he served in the U.S. Navy, and as a civilian, he worked as a personnel officer for the U.S. Air Force -- stationed in Maine, Florida, and New Mexico, as well as bases in both Europe and Asia. He is a frequent guest lecturer on strategic planning at Air University.
Tara Johnson -- Wisconsin Senate District 32
Tara Johnson serves her community as the vice chair of the county board in La Crosse, Wisconsin. From 1993 to 2000, she was the director of the La Crosse Area United Way. She is a member of the Economic Development Fund, where she worked to bring 200 new jobs to her community and protected hundreds more from leaving. She serves as a board member for the Rotary Club of La Crosse, the United Fund for the Arts and Humanities, the Women’s Fund of the La Crosse Community Foundation, and the La Crosse Public Education Foundation. She is also an active member of the La Crosse Chamber of Commerce.
Dr. Tony Bompiani -- Pennsylania Senate District 39
Dr. Tony Bompiani is a chiropractor from Hempfield, Pennsylvania. For 12 years, he served as the school director for the Hempfield Area School District, and for 15 years, he was a member of the Youngwood and Hempfield recreation boards. He is an outspoken advocate for the expansion and improvement of health care coverage and education reform. He is also running for the legislature to reshape the state property tax system, improve public infrastructure, and promote ethics reform.
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States respond to the economic crisis
We interrupt the election analysis to bring you a bit of policy news.
In the wake of the nation's deepening economic crisis, state leaders across the country are working hard to take action in response.
In California, lawmakers and Gov. Schwarzenegger are discussing the possibility of a special session to reassess budget priorities amidst the news that revenue for the state might fall as much $1 billion below the amount originally projected.
In New Jersey, both chambers of the legislature will meet for an address by Gov. Jon Corzine and the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee plans a special hearing on the economy for next Monday.
State employees are among the people being impacted by the projected budget shortfalls. In many states, government workers are being offered early retirement packages, and others are being asked to work fewer hours or to pay more for benefits. Still other states, like Pennsylvania, have instituted a hiring freeze in an effort to balance their budget.
The possibility that municipal bond markets might become inaccessible is another huge potential problem facing local governments. State lawmakers have begun to appeal to the federal government for assistance, but it appears that there are legal barriers that would prevent Washington from coming to their aid. Namely, a longstanding provision of the Internal Revenue Code prohibits the federal government from guaranteeing the tax-exempt bonds that local governments issue.
We'll obviously have plenty more to say about politics as Election Day draws closer, but this crisis will be a major point of emphasis for our legislators in the near future, and we'll keep you posted on other responses as they develop.
Handicapping New Hampshire
Yesterday, John DiStaso, a columnist for the New Hampshire Union Leader, wrote a pretty comprehensive look at the contest for control of the state senate.
The takeaway:
At this point, Democrats appear to be in a strong position to maintain their 14-10 majority in the state Senate. They are generally better-funded than the Republicans and, like two years ago, their campaigns are being effectively coordinated by their state party apparatus.
Read his entire analysis for a race-by-race account.
A good look at Nevada
Late last month, in the middle of our Essential Races campaign, the good folks at Governing put together a preview of the fight for control of the Nevada Senate.
Campaigning in the Silver State is particularly interesting because it all comes down to two races for districts located a few miles apart in the Clark County. Both seats are held by Republican incumbents -- Bob Beers and Joe Heck -- who are both freshmen legislators.
Both districts previously had a Republican lean, but Democrats have gained ever-so-slight edges in party registration in recent months. Democrats also could benefit from the unpopularity of Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons and Nevada's economic troubles.
Beers' challenger is Allison Copening, who is running in one of our 2008 Essential Races.
Making progress in Florida
In Florida, both parties are raising lots of money for state legislative races. Republicans currently hold majorities of 77-43 in the House and 26-14 in the Senate, and Democrats do not expect to pick up either chamber.
But they are looking to make gains this year:
"I'm cautiously optimistic," is the best state Rep. Franklin Sands, D-Plantation, would say of prospects for bolstering the 43-vote Democratic minority in the House. Sands, who will become minority leader in November, thinks this could be "a change election" nationally, and that could help Democrats in a close race.
If Democrats in the state can cut into Republican majorities, then we might have an opportunity to make a play in next cycle. A number of Republicans will be forced to retire, and that fact will help:
In 2010, there will be 21 Republicans and only four Democrats term-limited out of the House, while eight Republicans and only one Democrat hit the wall in the Senate.
With Florida projected to add two congressional seats after the next census, I would love the opportunity to challenge the GOP for the state before the next round of redistricting.
The GOP strategy in Tennessee
In Tennessee, all eyes are on the state senate. The chamber is currently tied, 16/16 (with one Independent).
Republicans believe that Democrats will turn out big numbers of supporters in the state's cities and the suburbs and exurbs that surround them, and the GOP is working hard to target Democratic candidates running in rural districts.
With five weeks to go before Nov. 4, Election Day, the state GOP is "focused completely" on legislative races, many of them far-flung seats vacated by Democrats.
[...]
The focus on key legislative races in rural districts is a strategy the party hammered out last year, [State GOP Chair Robin] Smith said, tailoring local campaigns to match the moods and views of voters in those districts.
[...]
Republicans hope Dolores Gresham can win the rural, eight-county West Tennessee seat vacated by former Senate Speaker John Wilder, who retired last session. The Democratic candidate is Randy Camp, a former lobbyist and personnel commissioner for Gov. Phil Bredesen.
Another closely watched Senate race is the six-county District 12 race between Democrat Becky Ruppe and Republican Ken Yager. They are vying to replace Democrat Tommy Kilby, who also stepped down last session.
A third race is the six-county District 4 in East Tennessee, where Republicans hope to unseat independent Sen. Mike Williams, a former Republican. Williams got a key endorsement last week from the National Rifle Association.
Despite a slew of term-limit retirements, Democrats in the state have a chance. Voters in Tennessee are paying close attention to the national economic crisis, and Democratic candidates are running localized campaigns focused on growing jobs and improving health care and education -- issues that resonate in the current political climate.
Arizona rising
Given the historic strength of the GOP in Arizona, you'd be forgiven for assuming that Republicans are once again in an unassailable position this year.
It's an easy mistake to make.
Republicans do hold a majority in both chambers of the legislature, and the GOP has continuously held control over the House of Representative since 1966.
But two years ago, Democrats picked up six House seats, and now they believe that they have an opportunity to make a play at the lower chamber:
Democrats point to the "change" mood coloring this year's elections, an energized and well-funded party and the results of this month's GOP primary elections as reasons for their optimism.
"What we saw in the September primaries were Republicans saying, 'What we need to fix this state is more conservatives,' " Democratic Party spokesman Emily DeRose said.
In contested GOP primaries, the more conservative candidate prevailed in races from Anthem to Tucson. That makes for more striking contrasts with the Democrats, many of whom have been carefully groomed to strike a moderate tone.
Even if the GOP does have some sort of built-in, institutional advantage, Democrats, this year, have a lot more money to work with.
The latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show the Democrats with more than four times as much cash on hand as the Republicans: $346,116 compared with $78,431.
That kind of edge sure can help to get a point across.
Today's Essential Races
Brian Foley -- New York Senate District 3
Who he is: Brian Foley is the town supervisor for his community in Brookhaven, New York. He previously served in the Suffolk County Legislature, where he sponsored legislation to increase access to higher education, to make hospitals safer, and worked to establish new protections against secondhand smoke in the workplace. He is a member of the Brookhaven Roe YMCA Board of Directors, Brookhaven Memorial Hospital Advisory Board, Patchogue Chamber of Commerce, Suffolk County Community Mediation Center, and other civic organizations.
Why his race matters: Democrats in New York only need to win two more seats to gain control of the state senate for the first time in almost 70 years. Earlier this year, Democrats closed the gap in the chamber by winning special elections in two districts that we haven't controlled in more than century, and polling indicates that more than half of the voters in New York support a Democratic takeover of the Senate. Brian Foley represents an important opportunity to do just that.
Kate Segal -- Michigan House District 62
Who she is: Kate Segal is a county commissioner from Battle Creek, Michigan. From 2002 to 2006, she worked in the state House of Representatives as a health policy analyst, and she previously served as the district director for State Senator Mark Schauer. Segal currently serves as chair of the United Way Strong and Successful Families and Children Solutions Team, is a board member Urban League of Battle Creek, and chair of the Junior League of Battle Creek’s Nutrition Project.
Why her race matters: Democrats control the Michigan House by six seats, 58/52. A victory for Kate Segal will bring a seasoned leader to Lansing and help Democrats in the chamber solidify their majority, build momentum for a Democratic agenda in the state, and ensure that the party is well positioned for redistricting in 2010.
Nancy Garland -- Ohio House District 20
Who she is: Nancy Garland is a health care expert from New Albany, Ohio. She began her career in Washington, DC where she worked as a legislative assistant on Capitol Hill, then as an advocate for the American Optometric Association, and finally as the director of government affairs for the American Physical Therapy Association. Upon returning to Ohio, she worked for five years as the executive director of the Ohio Physical Therapy Association. She is currently a clinical assistant professor at The Ohio State University School of Allied Medical Professions where she teaches health policy in the physical therapy doctoral program.
Why her race matters: After years of GOP control, Democrats are gradually gaining strength throughout the state. In the House, Republicans currently hold a seven seat majority, 46/53. If candidates like Nancy Garland can pick up open seats, Democrats have an opportunity to make a play for the chamber this cycle.
Jeff Steinborn -- New Mexico House District 39
Who he is: Jeff Steinborn is an environmentalist from Las Cruces, New Mexico. He currently serves as a member of the state House of Representatives, where he sits on the Committees for Energy & Natural Resources as well as Health & Government Affairs. He works as the the southern director for the New Mexico Wilderness Alliance and is a co-founder of the High Tech Consortium of Southern New Mexico. He previously worked as an aide to then-Congressman Bill Richardson and to Senator Jeff Bingaman.
Why his race matters: Two years ago, Jeff Steinborn won his race in an open seat formerly held by Republicans. Now the GOP is working hard to defeat Steinborn and retake the district. Democrats control the New Mexico House but must reelect all of their vulnerable incumbents to protect their majority.
Final day for suggestions!
Two weeks ago, we asked for your help identifying strong Democrats running competitive races for state legislature all across the country.
We've been overwhelmed by your response. All told, more than 1,800 of you have taken the time to tell us about inspirational local leaders who need national attention.
At midnight tonight, we'll go through your recommendations and select 10 more candidates to support through our Essential Races program.
If you haven't already, will you take the time to tell us about a race we should be watching in your area?
Today's Essential Races
Jennifer Haase -- Michigan House District 32
Who she is: Jennifer Haase is an educator from Richmond, Michigan. She works as an elementary teacher in her local public school. For the past four years, she has been a building representative for her union, and she currently serves as a Curriculum Leader in the district. She is a member of the National Education Association and the Michigan Education Association, as well as Clean Water Action, and the Michigan Reading Association.
Why her race matters: Democrats control the Michigan House by six seats, 58/52. A victory for Jennifer Haase will help legislative leaders solidify their majority, build momentum for a Democratic agenda in the state, and ensure that the party is well positioned for redistricting in 2010.
Matt Patten -- Ohio House District 18
Who he is: Matt Patten is a community organizer from Strongville, Ohio. He currently works as a labor management field coordinator, working with civic and business leaders to find solutions that will benefit everyone in his community. He is running on a platform of improving education, enhancing economic development opportunities, extending access to affordable health care coverage and assisting seniors and their families.
Why his race matters: After years of GOP control, Democrats are gradually gaining strength throughout the state. In the House, Republicans currently hold a seven seat majority, 46/53. If candidates like Matt Patten can pick up open seats, Democrats have an opportunity to make a play for the chamber this cycle.
Steve Sodders -- Iowa Senate District 22
Who he is: Steve Sodders is a law enforcement official with more than 20 years of experience from State Center, Iowa. He currently works as the deputy sheriff for Marshall County. He has previously a D.A.R.E instructor and detective on the Mid Iowa Drug Task Force. He serves his community through his involvement with YMCA, the Youth and Shelter Services organizations, and the Iowa Rivers Red Cross. He is also involved with the Iowa Teamsters Law Enforcement League.
Why his race matters: Democrats in the Iowa Senate are looking to build on their majority in the upper chamber in order to pass an agenda that helps all the people of their state. Steve Sodders is running a strong race for an open district currently held by a Republican and has a great opportunity to pick up the seat.
Brittany MacLean -- Montana Senate District 2
Who she is: Brittany MacLean is a mother of four from Whitefish, Montana. She currently works as a grant writer for organizations like the Glacier National Park Fund. She previously worked for the Juneau Family Health and Birth Center -- an organization she founded in Alaska -- and served on the steering committee for her community Boys and Girls Club. She began her career as an Americorps volunteer, helping run an after school program for children and their parents.
Why her race matters: Democrats won a majority in the Montana Senate in 2006 and currently control the chamber by two seats, 26/24. Our leaders in the state are hard at work to build on their majority in the chamber in order to pass an agenda that helps all the people of their state. The outcome of Brittany MacLean's race could decide which party controls the chamber until 2010.
Today's Essential Races
John DeFrancisco -- Pennsylvania House District 162
Who he is: John DeFrancisco has served his community for 17 years as an elected councilman and council president in Norwood Borough. For 24 years, he has served the United Auto Workers, local 1069, where he has been president since 2001. DeFrancisco has also served on the AFL-CIO Board as Vice-President, C.A.P. Council UAW Region #9 and Eddystone/1069 Optimist Club as Vice President.
Why his race matters: Democrats in Pennsylvania control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives by just one seat. A victory for John DeFrancisco will help the party solidify control over the chamber and promote a Democratic agenda for the people of the state.
Nancy Michael -- Indiana House District 44
Who she is: Nancy Michael served as mayor of Greencastle, Indiana for 12 years. During her tenure, she oversaw construction of a new $12.3 million wastewater treatment facility, developed a broadband/DSL Internet program for the community through the partnership with USDA and Cinergy Metronet, and pushed for infrustructure development to attract new businesses. She is running to improve education, develop a fair property tax system, and grow Indiana's economy.
Why her race matters: Democrats in Indiana control the chamber by just two seats, and Nancy Michael is targeting a key Republican-held district that Democrats need to win in order to expand their majority. In the legislature, she will bring immediate expertise on economic development.
Doc Woerner -- Montana House District 58
Who he is: Doc Woerner is a small business owner and veterinarian from Laurel, Montana. He has served his community on the BLM Resource Advisory Council for Eastern Montana, the Montana Board of Veterinary Medical Examiners, and the Yellowstone Historic Preservation Board. He is a member of the Yellowstone Business Partnership, Montana Conservation Voters, the Montana Farm Bureau, and many other civic organizations.
Why his race matters: Neither party has been able to solidify control over the Montana House -- it has changed hands in each of the last two elections. It was tied four years ago under Democratic leadership, and now Republicans currently control the chamber by one seat, 50/49 (with one independent). Democrats have an opportunity to win a majority this year, but for that to happen, we need to win competitive races like that of Doc Woerner.
Martha McLeod -- New Hampshire Senate District 1
Who she is: Martha McLeod is a health care professional and the director of a not for profit organization in New Hampshire. She currently serves as a state representative where she sits on the Finance Committee. As the head of the North Country Health Consortium, she has worked to improve quality and access to health care in her community, bringing in more than $10 million to the area over the last nine years for issues like professional education for rural doctors and nurses, technology updates for health care facilities, substance abuse prevention, parenting programs and oral health services.
Why her race matters: Democrats control the New Hampshire Senate by four seats, 14/10. Party leaders look at 2008 as an opportunity to build momentum toward a Democratic agenda in the next legislative session. As an experienced legislator and health care expert, Martha McLeod will be a strong addition to the upper chamber.




