The DLCC is pleased to present our complete 2010 Essential Races list. Of the 55 Essential Races listed below, forty were selected by the DLCC and fifteen through public, grassroots nominations. For a separate list of the Grassroots Essential Races, please visit www.dlcc.org/2010Races41-55.

California Assembly District 5 -- Dr. Richard Pan
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Dr. Pan is running against the author of the infamous Prop 8 ballot measure that took away the rights of hundreds of thousands of Californians to marry the person they love. A victory for Dr. Pan in this open-seat race would prove that even in a district with a slight Republican lean, Californians don’t want to be governed by the authors of a right-wing social agenda. It would also bring Democrats closer to the 2/3 majority needed to pass a budget.

California Senate District 12 -- Anna Caballero
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Because of rules instituted by public ballot initiative, California budgets require a 2/3 majority in the legislature to pass. That’s rarely a problem in good times, but in tough economic times like these the system allows the far-right GOP minority to make the state ungovernable. Senate Democrats are only two seats away from a 2/3 majority, and Democratic-leaning SD-12 is a key pickup opportunity.

Colorado House District 23-- Max Tyler
Status: Democratic Incumbent (appointee)

Why this Race Matters: The GOP nominee in this district moved there from Denver just five days before the deadline to file for office, and Rep. Tyler has deeper roots in the community. Still, this is a politically-competitive district in a key redistricting battleground.

Colorado House District 27 -- Sara Gagliardi
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Colorado is one of the top redistricting battlegrounds in the country, and HD-27 is in many ways a bellwether district for Colorado House Democrats. Based in Arvada, CO (just northwest of Denver), this race pits a well-liked Democratic Representative against a far-right GOP challenger in a district with a slight Republican lean.

Colorado Senate District 5 -- Gail Schwartz
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Sen. Schwartz has represented this eleven-county district since 2006, and the district’s slight Republican lean makes it a critical district for Colorado Democrats to defend in the closely-divided state Senate. Colorado is an important redistricting state in 2011, and if the Republicans take over the legislature , they could gerrymander 2-3 new congressional seats for the GOP.

Colorado Senate District 20-- Cheri Jahn
Status: Democratic Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Defeating incumbents is almost always more difficult than capturing open seats, so keeping SD-20 in Democratic hands would indicate a good night for Democratic candidates elsewhere in Colorado. And as a top redistricting battleground, a Democratic Senate majority would likely prevent Republicans from gerrymandering up to three new GOP congressional seats.

Delaware House District 10 -- Dennis E. Williams
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Democrats captured five seats to win a majority in this chamber in 2008, but the national climate and a unique mix of candidates at the top of the ticket make this a chamber to watch. Regardless, if first-term legislators like Rep. Williams win re-election, the Democratic majority is likely safe.

Indiana House District 44 -- Nancy Michael
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This campaign features a first-term lawmaker in a rural, conservative-leaning district, so HD-44 should be a highly-endangered district in a difficult climate like 2010. But the Democratic Representative’s high name-recognition and popularity from her years as a local mayor make this an excellent test of Democrats’ strategy of localizing and personalizing campaigns.

Indiana House District 46-- Bionca Gambill
Status: Democratic Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: HD-56 is a traditionally-conservative district left open by a well-liked Democratic Representative. This district closely resembles those held by several vulnerable Democratic Representatives, so holding this open seat would be a very good sign for other vulnerable districts. The Democratic majority in the Indiana House is currently the only thing preventing the defeat of three Democratic members of congress through gerrymandering.

Indiana House District 51 -- Codie Ross
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: The GOP incumbent in this northeast Indiana district has a history of under-performing on Election Day, and his Democratic challenger this cycle is probably the strongest candidate he’s ever faced. Picking up this seat would increase House Democrats’ narrow margin for error in the chamber.

Indiana House District 72 -- Shane Gibson
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Republican Ed Clere won this traditionally Democratic seat by 108 votes in the most shocking Indiana House upset of 2008. Winning it back will provide valuable breathing room for the Democrats’ narrow, four-seat majority ahead of redistricting.

Iowa House District 51 -- Dan Muhlbauer
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Performing well in this evenly-divided open seat with a large share of Independent voters would bode very well for Iowa Democrats statewide. National Republicans are hinting that they’ll overrule Iowa’s highly-respected independent redistricting commission if they re-take the legislature, while Democratic leaders have pledged to uphold the commission’s recommended maps.

Iowa House District 74-- Scott Ourth
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Iowa political observers expect HD-74 to be one of the closest races in the Iowa House this year and a bellwether for Democratic chances elsewhere. National Republicans are hinting that they’ll overrule Iowa’s highly-respected independent redistricting commission if they re-take the legislature. Democratic leaders have pledged to uphold the commission’s recommended maps.

Iowa Senate District 37-- Staci Appel
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: In what’s shaping up to be the highest-profile State Senate race in Iowa, Sen. Appel’s opponent has made opposition to marriage equality a top issue. Sen. Appel has focused on highlighting her efforts to create jobs and protect education. Iowa is the gold standard for non-partisan redistricting, but national Republicans are threatening to overturn that process if they capture the legislature.

Iowa Senate District 45 -- Becky Schmitz
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This race was one of the closest in the country in 2006, when Sen. Schmitz defeated a Republican incumbent by just 184 votes. Four years later (Iowa Senate elections are staggered), Schmitz is trying to hold on in what’s expected to be another close contest. Just how close? In a special election a little over a year ago, Democrats retained a state House district covering much of the same territory as SD-45, winning by only 127 votes.

Kansas House District 91 -- Dan Manning
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This campaign turned ugly for Democratic nominee Dan Manning a few weeks ago when he discovered a death threat laced with anti-gay slurs on his doorstep. Manning is a decorated West Point graduate who was discharged from the military because of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. If Manning wins his race, factional divisions within the state Republican Party would give him considerably more influence in the Kansas House than the GOP’s wide chamber majority would suggest.

Kentucky Senate District 38-- Marty Meyer
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Most state legislative races are decided on state and local issues, but that’s especially true in Kentucky. That local focus has helped Kentucky Democrats pick up two overwhelmingly conservative State Senate districts in special elections since 2008, putting them within striking distance of winning a majority in time for redistricting.

Maine Senate District 15 -- Deb Simpson
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Democrats hold a narrow, 20-15 majority in the Maine Senate, and the electoral performance of first-term lawmakers like Sen. Simpson will likely determine whether Democrats return as the majority party after November.

Michigan House District 39 -- Lisa Brown
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Michigan is one of the biggest redistricting battlegrounds this year, and protecting the Democratic majority in the state House will be critical. Many of the most competitive campaigns are in suburban areas like this one, making HD-39 something of a bellwether for Democratic fortunes in similar districts.

Michigan House District 62-- Kate Segal
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: The Republican is a Tea Party supporter who previously ran for State Senate from the right as an Independent candidate. A Democratic victory would help retain a State House majority in a critical redistricting battleground state.

Michigan House District 101 -- Dan Scripps
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: To capture a state House majority, Republicans will have to defeat several first-term lawmakers like Rep. Scripps, who represents four northwestern counties along the shores of Lake Michigan. That makes HD-101 a key test of whether locally-popular Democratic lawmakers can survive without the tailwind that President Obama’s surging campaign provided here in 2008.

Michigan Senate District 6-- Glenn Anderson
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: With only 8 incumbents running in the 38-seat Senate (because of term limits), the entire chamber is essentially up for grabs. Sen. Anderson, as a freshman legislator in a competitive district, is the only Democratic incumbent considered at all vulnerable. Therefore, holding his seat is the first step to closing the Republicans’ 16-22 advantage in time for redistricting.

Minnesota House District 32B -- Katie Rodriguez
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Republicans seem to think they have a chance in the Minnesota House, where they need to pick up 21 seats to win control. But if Katie Rodriguez defeats the incumbent GOP minority leader, whatever chance they had to begin with is likely wiped out.

Minnesota Senate District 12 -- Taylor Stevenson
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: This Brainerd-based district became competitive when the Republican incumbent was defeated in his primary by a Tea Party-backed candidate. That incumbent then endorsed DFL nominee Taylor Stevenson to replace him, but he then changed his mind and announced a write-in campaign (setting up a volatile four-way race). Democrats hold a wide majority in the Minnesota Senate, but a loss of two seats would bring Democrats under the 2/3 majority needed to override vetoes.

Missouri House District 121-- Courtney Cole
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Incumbent Republican Denny Hoskins, who won his first election by just 122 votes in 2008, ran for office as a fiscally-conservative CPA, until local media discovered he had $20,000 in unpaid taxes. After that news came out, Hoskins got in a fight on the House floor. This is unquestionably House Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, the first of several pickups they’ll need to close the GOP advantage.

Montana House District 100-- Willis Curdy
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: The State House epitomizes Montana’s history of close legislative elections, currently tied at 50 seats apiece and led by Democratic Speaker Bob Bergren. A one-seat gain for either party would mean unambiguous control of the chamber, and the open-seat HD-100 is a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

Montana Senate District 25-- Kendall Van Dyk
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Montana’s legislative elections might be the most competitive in the country – both chambers usually end up closely divided, and just a two seat gain would pull Democrats to a tie this year in the State Senate.

Nevada Senate District 5-- Joyce Woodhouse
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Barring a major upset, this is the one and only vulnerable Democratic seat in the Nevada State Senate. Sen. Woodhouse defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006, and her district has trended more Democratic since then. Holding this seat allows Democrats to make a play for a 2/3 majority in the State Senate, guaranteeing control of redistricting in 2011.

New Hampshire Senate District 2 -- Deb Reynolds
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: New Hampshire voters approved a constitutional amendment in 2006 that radically changes the way state legislative districts are drawn, and 2011 will be the first time the new guidelines are used. Reynolds is a 2-term incumbent facing off against a self-funding candidate that was hand-picked by former Republican Governor and George H.W. Bush Chief of Staff John H. Sununu.

New Hampshire Senate District 18 -- Betsi DeVries
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: 2011 will be the first time that new redistricting guidelines are used in New Hampshire and the State Senate is crucial to the redistricting process. Holding this traditional swing district is key to the Democrats’ 14-10 majority in the State Senate and will play a key role in the redistricting process under the new system.

New Jersey Senate District 14 -- Linda Greenstein
Status: Republican Incumbent (appointee)

Why this Race Matters: The New Jersey Senate is not up for election until 2011, so this is not a top battleground chamber this year. But out of four special legislative elections concurrent with the 2010 cycle, the Senate seat in central New Jersey’s LD-14 is the only district currently held by a Republican. It’s also the only district considered to be competitive, which makes current Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein’s well-financed challenge the Democrats’ one and only chance to stretch their 23-17 lead in the Senate ahead of 2011, which will be the first election cycle in the newly redrawn legislative districts.

New York Senate District 38 -- David Carlucci
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: This district received the third-most Essential Races nominations of any in the country. Many analysts predicted that the campaign to replace the late Sen. Thomas Morahan would provide Senate Democrats their best pickup opportunity in the state. The moderate-to-liberal Morahan had locked down this suburban district for five and a half terms, even as it trended strongly Democratic during the past decade. If Senate Democrats successfully take advantage of this open seat contest, they will be in a strong position to retain their majority.

New York Senate District 40-- Mike Kaplowitz
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: The New York Senate Republicans’ statewide campaign committee called the GOP nominee in this district “erratic,” said he “has some serious issues,” and even accused him of “stalking” his ex-girlfriend. Capturing this swing district would cement Democratic control of the State Senate just in time for redistricting.

North Carolina House District 41 -- Chris Heagarty
Status: Democratic Incumbent (appointee)

Why this Race Matters: This was the most-nominated Essential Race in North Carolina and one of the most popular nominations in the country. Located at the heart of a critical swing region known as the “Research Triangle,” HD-41 has a history of close general elections, and the progressive-leaning Heagarty is facing his first election after he was appointed to fill a vacancy here. As a sign of the closeness of this race, a GOP-funded group recently sent mailers that falsely attacked Heagarty based on legislative votes that took place before Heagarty was even appointed.

North Carolina House District 81 -- Hugh Holliman
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Majority Leader Holliman is facing a rematch against his 2008 opponent, whom he defeated by a relatively close 5% margin. Leader Holliman has won tough races before in his Lexington-based district in overwhelmingly Republican Davidson County, even when the national political climate favored Republicans. If he can hold on again this year, it would signal that North Carolina Democrats will persevere this cycle.

North Carolina House District 115-- Patsy Keever
Status: Democratic Incumbent (appointee)

Why this Race Matters: Primary challenges can sometimes cause bad blood between the candidates, but that wasn’t the case in HD-115. Patsy ran a positive campaign and won through grassroots efforts. Afterward, Democratic incumbent Bruce Goforth graciously resigned (after the legislative session) so that Patsy could be appointed to the seat and begin building seniority. She was sworn in on September 16th, and she’s now facing a tough GOP challenge.

North Carolina Senate District 19-- Margaret Dickson
Status: Democratic Incumbent (appointee)

Why this Race Matters: North Carolina is a critical redistricting state where Democrats are fighting to retain legislative majorities this year, and Sen. Dickson is facing her first election in this swing district. Democrats are defending several open Senate seats this year, but not enough are competitive to flip control of the chamber. That means GOP hopes depend on defeating Democratic incumbents like Sen. Dickson.

Ohio House District 21-- David Robinson
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: As a Republican open seat in a swing area of suburban Columbus, HD-21 is an opportunity of Ohio House Democrats to generate offense in a tough electoral climate. A win here gives majority Democrats some additional breathing room in one of the top redistricting battlegrounds in the Country.

Ohio House District 28 -- Connie Pillich
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: In 2006, Rep. Pillich nearly defeated a Republican incumbent in this suburban swing district, and she came back in 2008 to win it as an open seat by nearly 10%. This district received the second-most “Essential Races” nominations of any campaign in the country, underscoring just how decisive it could be for control of the state House in this critical redistricting battleground.

Ohio House District 93 -- Linda Secrest
Status: Democratic Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: HD-93 is a critical open seat to defend in a traditionally swing region of the state. Winning here would improve Democratic chances of holding their narrow Ohio House majority and unpacking one of the most extreme GOP gerrymanders in the country.

Oregon House District 24 -- Susan Sokol Blosser
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Oregon is an important redistricting state, especially in this unpredictable election climate. The GOP incumbent in this district is one of the state’s most right-wing legislators – he proposed abolishing the Healthy Kids program and taking health coverage away from 80,000 Oregon children - and his defeat would bode poorly for other conservative Republicans running this fall.

Oregon House District 54 -- Judy Stiegler
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: The race in HD-54 received more nominations than any other Oregon district, and it was one of the most-nominated campaigns in the country. Based in Bend, Oregon, Rep. Stiegler defeated a Republican incumbent here in 2008, a victory that helped expand House Democrats’ narrow 31-29 advantage into a 36-24 majority. Republicans are hoping the receding Democratic tide hands the majority back to them in time for redistricting, but that probably won’t happen if Democrats can win in districts like this one.

Oregon Senate District 26-- Brent Barton
Status: Democratic Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: Only half of the State Senate is up for election in 2010, but three-quarters of the seats up this year are held by Democrats. Defending open seats like SD-26 is the first key to protecting the Democrats’ 18-12 advantage in an important redistricting chamber.

Pennsylvania House District 31 -- Steve Santarsiero
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This Bucks County district outside of Philadelphia was the most-nominated Essential Race in the entire country, and it’s easy to see why. The district is evenly divided politically, and a district this close with a first-term Democratic representative is a must-win for the Republicans. Conversely, a Democratic victory here would indicate positive outcomes for House Democrats statewide.

Pennsylvania House District 131 -- Mike Horton
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: The best defense is a good offense, and that’s certainly true in Pennsylvania this year. Picking up even one or two Republican-held districts like this one would give democrats an excellent chance to retain their narrow State House majority and prevent the GOP from repeating their infamous gerrymander of 2001.

Pennsylvania House District 146 -- Mark Painter
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This is the 6th most Democratic state House district currently held by a Republican (incumbent Tom Quigley, in only his second term). The district has rapidly trended Democratic this decade, providing an opportunity for House Democrats to gain valuable breathing room for their narrow majority in a crucial redistricting chamber.

Pennsylvania House District 163 -- Shannon Meehan
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This is another district that’s shifted away from the Republicans in recent years. John Kerry won here by 15 points, and Barack Obama won here by 20. The GOP incumbent has slowly seen his vote margins erode since his first election in 1978, and retired Army Captain Shannon Meehan, who was severely wounded in Iraq, is his strongest Democratic challenger in recent memory. Winning this district would provide valuable breathing room for the narrow Democratic majority in this crucial redistricting state.

South Carolina House District 45 – Mary Bernsdorff
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Nearly every grassroots nomination for this district (and there were scores of them) expressed disgust at South Carolina Republicans’ stubborn insistence on cutting public education; noted the Democratic nominee’s history as an award-winning local school principal; or mentioned both. And while Bernsdorff would likely join a Democratic caucus deep in the minority if she wins, factional divisions within the GOP and the possibility of working with a Democratic governor would make this an important pickup for Democrats.

Tennessee House District 36-- Keith Clotfelter
Status: Republican Open Seat

Why this Race Matters: The Knoxville News-Sentinel recently profiled this race as one of the closest in Tennessee – and they’re spot on. Winning open seats like this one is House Democrats’ best hope of re-building their majority in time to prevent a GOP gerrymander aimed at making Democrats a permanent minority in the state.

Tennessee House District 40 -- James Hale
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This is a perfect example of the type of district Democrats need to win in order to reclaim their Tennessee House majority. A prominent Democrat held this seat for 36 years before his retirement in 2008, and the GOP legislator who replaced him may never be more vulnerable than in this first re-election campaign.

Texas House District 113-- Jamie Dorris
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: This was a competitive race even before local media discovered that the GOP incumbent has allegedly spent the last 18 years skimming taxpayer money for travel expenses – for a total of nearly $50,000 that should not have gone in his own pocket. Democrats need only three more seats to win a majority in the Texas House, which would give them the chance to undo Tom DeLay’s infamous mid-decade gerrymander in 2003.

Texas House District 138 -- Kendra Yarbrough Camerena
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: GOP incumbent Dwayne Bohac is at the center of a voter disenfranchisement scandal in Democratic-trending Harris County (Houston), in which nearly 70,000 voter registration applications may have been improperly rejected. Defeating Bohac would bring Democrats close to their goal of a majority in the Texas House, which would prevent Republicans from expanding on Tom DeLay’s infamous mid-decade gerrymander of 2003.

Texas House District 144 -- Rick Molina
Status: Republican Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Freshman GOP incumbent Ken Legler won a narrow 51%-49% victory here last cycle, and this Harris County district has trended Democratic since then. Democrats need to take advantage of districts like this one if they hope to pick up the three seats they need for a majority in this critical redistricting battleground state.

Washington House District 26-2 -- Larry Seaquist
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Rep. Seaquist finished narrowly ahead of his GOP challenger in Washington’s unique “top two” primary, so most outside observers expect another close finish this November. Other Democratic districts are considered more vulnerable than this one, but with Democrats holding a comfortable lead in the chamber, this district is a better indicator of whether the GOP will come anywhere close to a majority.

Washington Senate District 6 -- Chris Marr
Status: Democratic Incumbent

Why this Race Matters: Republicans clearly must perform well in traditionally-Republican districts like this one to have any chance at capturing a State Senate majority, but their antics in this race may already be backfiring. One GOP mailer even depicts Sen. Marr’s head with what looks like a bullet hole and a pool of blood beneath his face.