The Post-Election Landscape

By Matt Compton at November 13, 2008 - 4:51pm
Elections Analysis

The Post-Election Landscape

Overview:

The 2008 election showed the strength of our nation's Democratic leaders up and down the ticket. Just as they have done in each of the five previous elections, our state lawmakers made important gains.

Our prior wins significantly increased the number of chambers that we needed to defend, and heading into Election Day, Republicans were telling the press that this might be their year to reverse the Democratic trend and win a slew of legislative victories.

It simply wasn't.

Prior to this election, we held majorities 57 chambers. We now control at least 60. Each of those wins is a testament to the hard work, dedication, and skill of our state Democratic lawmakers all over the country.

Pick-Ups:

In 2008, our political team targeted nine Republican-held chambers as possible pickup opportunities. On Election Day, we won new majorities in five of these chambers: the Delaware House, Ohio House, Wisconsin House, New York Senate, and the Nevada Senate.

Our win in Nevada was particularly hard fought, and observers on the ground believe that support from the DLCC proved to be decisive.

Victories there -- as well as Delaware, New York, and Wisconsin -- are notably significant because they give Democrats complete control of the legislature in these states. The current political landscape represents the smallest number of divided chambers since 1982.

We also made serious gains in two other targeted chambers -- the Montana House and Texas House.

Democrats in Texas picked up four seats, to cut the GOP margin to 76/74. In fact, we came with in 20 votes of winning a fifth race that would have tied the chamber. The new margins present the opportunity for a leadership battle to displace hyperpartisan GOP Speaker Tom Craddick.

In Montana, though one race is still being recounted, Democrats appear to have picked up enough seats to tie the chamber, 50/50. In this event, the Democratic governor will appoint the new Speaker of the House.

Two additional spots of good news: Democrats forced a tie in the Alaska Senate, despite the presence of the Gov. Sarah Palin on the GOP's presidential ticket. Democrats also defeated reelection bids by Republican Speakers in Delaware and Utah.

Defends:

Two years ago, Democrats won 10 new chambers, and during the last presidential election, we had a net gain of 6 chambers. In 2008, we knew that we had to focus on consolidating these past victories and improving Democratic margins in these states.

Prior to Election Day, our political team identified 13 chambers held by Democratic majorities that we needed to protect.

We successfully defended chambers in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Colorado, and we made serious gains in two chambers we originally thought we'd be hard pressed to hold -- the Michigan House and Oregon House.

Setbacks:

Of our 13 targeted chambers, we only lost Democratic majorities in two places: the Tennessee House and Montana Senate. The Montana Senate is among the most competitive in the country and has changed hands in nine of the last 15 elections. Democrats in the state were hampered by a number of term-limit-forced retirements in low-Democratic performance districts.

Republicans also gained control of the upper chambers in Tennessee and the Oklahoma. Both chambers were tied before last week's election.

On Tuesday, voters in Tennessee and Oklahoma came out strongly to support the national GOP ticket, suggesting some coattail effect.

As The New York Times reports, Sen. John McCain's margin of victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the Sooner State was nearly two to one. Oklahoma is the only state in the country where the Democratic presidential candidate failed to win a single county.

Obama's support in Tennessee was stronger, due in large part to the Democratic turnout in urban areas -- he only lost the state by 15 points. But the Republican Party in the state made a point to target Democratic legislative candidates running in rural areas and were clearly able to make gains.

Conclusion:

Across the country, Democrats now control more than 55 percent of the nation's partisan legislative seats. We once again made net gains, adding approximately 100 seats to our column. Democrats now control both the legislature and governor’s office in 17 states. Republicans similarly dominate governments in just eight states.

Our current position is a solid one heading into the final election cycle before the Census and the next round of Congressional and legislative redistricting.

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